Week 10 marks the final week of teams with bye weeks – and also the beginning of the Thursday night game for the 2010 season. The opening Thursday night game of the year is a dandy – as the Ravens and Falcons each fight to be the first NFL team to 7 wins.
By Sunday night, it’s the Patriots and the Steelers, followed by Monday’s second match between Donovan McNabb and the Eagles.
Last Week: 6-7
It’s once again time to “Pick Your Knows” – the only time it’s not a disgusting habit – and here are Week 10’s games in the NFL (spreads as they appear through CBSSports.com).
Pick Your Knows: NFL Week 10 Picks Against the Spread
Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons (-1.5)
This game is fairly even matched – and one advantage is the Falcons being undefeated at home and QB Matt Ryan only having one career loss in Atlanta. Expect Atlanta to give the Ravens a heavy dose of Michael Turner – hoping they can win the time of possession game. This one is a coin flip – and therefore the edge goes to the home team.
KP’s Pick: Atlanta
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (+1.5)
The Vikings have big names on the D-line, plus a top ten pass defense (yards per game) – all signs that would point to a Minnesota win considering the sacks allowed by the Bears, plus picks by Cutler. But the Vikes haven’t managed to get many sacks or picks – and therefore expect Favre to throw more INT’s on this day – as Chicago escapes with a home win.
KP’s Pick: Chicago
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (+0.5)
The Dolphins are a balanced team – both on offense and defense – falling into the middle of the pack in the NFL in each category. The Titans debut Randy Moss, in hopes to stretch out the defense and keep a team from stacking the box. Miami is winless at home – but with Chad Pennington taking over the offense again – expect limited mistakes and a more efficient offense.
KP’s Pick: Miami
Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills (-2.5)
Shaun Hill will start at QB for the Lions – once again replacing an injured Matthew Stafford. The Bills have come close to winning its first game over the last 3 weeks – losing twice in OT and falling by a field goal to the Bears last week. Playing at home in a game that will likely be a shootout, expect Buffalo to finally break into the win column on Sunday.
KP’s Pick: Buffalo
New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (+3.5)
The Browns will likely be the trendy pick this week considering how they dismantled New England last week. But the Jets feature a much better defense, highlighted by a top five run defense that should keep Peyton Hillis in check all day – forcing Colt McCoy to win through the air. Take the Jets to cover on the road.
KP’s Pick: New York Jets
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-7.5)
The Bengals almost pulled out a miracle win against the Steelers on Monday night – but that gamewas at home – and while the Colts defense is not as solid as Pittsburgh’s D, Indy also has a much more potent passing game led by Peyton Manning. Colts cover at home.
KP’s Pick: Indianapolis
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5)
The Panthers have had a tough road this season – most recently losing Matt Moore for the year, plus having both its star running backs hobbled (Mike Goodson will start on Sunday). With the majority of its talent hobbled, it’s a tall order for Carolina to keep a game close on the road against a Bucs team that is surprising many in 2010.
KP’s Pick: Tampa Bay
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5)
Matt Schaub has reportedly said that he is OK to play this Sunday – and with him in the game, this one should be a shootout, as Garrard and the Jags will likely score a lot on a weak Houston pass defense. In the end, it’s the balanced attack of Schaub, Johnson and Foster that wins the game for the Texans.
KP’s Pick: Houston
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (+0.5)
This game features the most potent rushing attack (KC) against one of the best passing attacks (Denver). The key difference: The Chiefs’ top NFL rushing attack takes on a Broncos team that is 31st in the NFL in rush defense. Expect Kansas City to run all over Denver.
KP’s Pick: Kansas City
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-3.5)
The Seahawks will likely get key pieces on the D-line back and Matt Hasselbeck, too – but this is a team that has struggled the last two weeks. This, plus both teams have played poorly on the road. The Cards – after blowing a lead late to the Vikings last week – utilize its passing weapons and get a must-needed win at home.
KP’s Pick: Arizona
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-14.5)
The Giants have clearly been the best team in the NFC to this point – while Dallas has arguably been the worst. Still, with Jason Garrett taking over – plus Jerry Jones threatening many more changes to come – expect some motivated Cowboys players to keep this game closer than the two-touchdown-plus spread that it’s at.
KP’s Pick: Dallas
St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-5.5)
Both teams have fairly solid run defenses, which will provide challenges for both Frank Gore and Steven Jackson. San Francisco’s only two wins are at home – but each were by 8 points – and with each team trying to control the clock and establish the run game, it’s a good bet that this one comes down to the final possession – and stays close throughout.
KP’s Pick: St. Louis
New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5)
The Patriots – coming off a blowout loss to Cleveland – now get the talented Steelers on the road. While the Steelers sport a dominant defense, they are beatable in the passing game. It’s difficult to imagine Belichick dropping back-to-back conference games by a large margin – and therefore, expect Brady to push this game to the wire. Take the Pats and the points.
KP’s Pick: New England
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (+3.5)
The Eagles fell to McNabb and the Redskins weeks ago – but it was a close game where Michael Vick left early with a rib injury. This time around, the Redskins are in some turmoil with the McNabb benching saga, plus the running backs nursing some injuries, too. Monday night, the Eagles salvage a split of the season series – and cover on the road in DC.
KP’s Pick: Philadelphia
Bye Week: Green Bay, Oakland, New Orleans and San Diego