It hasn’t been a great month posting picks in this contest. A lot of my high confidence parlays have not panned out. However, I will add that I have cashed in a number of parlays in the player props space, so that has encouraged me to expand and write more about those. For this contest, I’m going to stick with picking spreads in College Football and the NFL. I’ll always have at least one game from each. I’d ask for a clean slate entirely, but the SportsChump said I “can’t triple stamp a double stamp”. So while the Chump occasionally dabbles, I’m sticking with my standard, despite the rough start. Still, it hasn’t been as bad as getting robbed by a sweet old lady on a motorized cart. And with that, we head into our Week 5 Football Betting Picks. If you’re locked in with classic movie quotes of the ’90’s, then you already know what this week’s theme is.

It’s only fitting to pick this theme following a 1-4 week – and we bet we can get you gambling again.

Now, let’s see how many more Dumb and Dumber references can be squeezed into this post.

Contest Reminder

This is a season long contest with potential prizes going out to our winners, so if you want to join in on the fun, drop a comment here or over at the land of the SportsChump.  We take our top five bets of the week against the spread (in both the NFL and College Football). If you beat us and go undefeated, that leads to fun prizes and/or heaps of praise on our websites.

With that said, here are our TOP FIVE picks for the week, including my Week 5 Football Betting Picks. The list is ranked in order of confidence, from 50 “dollars” down to $10.

Week 5 Football Betting Picks – Dumb and Dumber Edition

KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates Sports

$50: Ball State Cardinals at Northwestern Wildcats (-34.5)

Ball State is going through it this season. Lindy’s CFB preview listed Ball State as a team having a “lack of a dependable playmaker to move the chains”. A month in and the Cardinals rank 130th in total offense. That tracks. Ball State (1-4) has been outscored 189-96, with their lone win coming against Stony Brook and four losses all being by double digits. In Dumb and Dumber, Harry’s parakeet Petey’s head fell off. Not the same bird, but maybe a similar feeling. Northwestern, on the other hand, ranks 44th in total offense. The Wildcats opened the new Ryan Field by rushing for over 400 yards and thrashing Penn State by 21. They also nearly upset Indiana. Maybe these Wildcats are just really good? Northwestern covers.

$40: Maryland Terrapins at Ohio State Buckeyes (-34.5)

The Terps have been outscored 102-26 through the opening two weeks of Big Ten play. That was facing UCLA and Nebraska. This is Ohio State… on the road. It’s gotten so ugly in College Park that fans and critics alike are calling for Mike Locksley to move on. At this rate, Locksley better hope he has other plans, like maybe opening his own pet store. “I got worms!” Nah, I hear that name is taken. Maryland’s pass defense has given up 9 TD’s, which is good for 99th in CFB. It’s a safe bet that Jeremiah Smith will add to that total. Maybe just hand that kid the Heisman right now. Right around the same time that someone hands Locksley his walking papers. Ohio State covers at home.

$30: Minnesota Golden Gophers (-2.5) at Purdue Boilermakers

Following Minnesota’s win over Michigan last week, P.J. Fleck was quoted as saying, “I couldn’t be prouder. Besides my marriage, my kids being born, this might be the best day of my life.” Yeah, but that still doesn’t top Harry Dunne: “Yesterday was one of the greatest days of my life. Mary and I went skiing, we made a snowman, she touched my leg.” OK, stop it, no one is killing anyone, including in this game. However, the line surprises me. Minnesota ranks 12th in total defense and 13th in red zone offense. On the flip side, Purdue ranks 128th in total defense and 104th in red zone defense. This is a solid Gophers team that gets its energy from Fleck’s unparalleled enthusiasm. Minnesota covers on the road.

$20: Chicago Bears (-2.5) at Green Bay Packers

Early October Bears-Packers just doesn’t cut it, does it? No situation where “I can’t feel my f-fingers anymore”. No need for extra gloves. Also, a lack of smash mouth football, too. The Packers have struggled in the trenches and in the run game (last in rushing). Micah Parsons is not back. The offense has found a way at times, despite a lot of struggles. Green Bay’s eleven-game win streak in the rivalry feels like a distant memory. The Bears have won three of four, including Ben Johnson’s first two. Then, there’s the Bears offense (1st in total yards), which seems to do just fine no matter who is under center. Heck, the Bears could bring in Johnny Manziel or Josh Rosen and move the ball. Bears cover on the road.

$10: Cleveland Browns (+2.5) at New York Jets

Why do I keep bringing the Browns into this? This is the third time in four weeks. It’s like I need a silly warning. “Sir, you can’t go in there!” Only, I’ll just come back with, “It’s OK, I’m a limo driver!” Anyway, since their blowout loss in Week 1, the Browns have played in three close games, knocking off the Bucs, Steelers, and Panthers. Elsewhere, the Jets have been punished by the injury bug, especially on offense. With Breece Hall and Adonai Mitchell out last week, New York managed just 157 yards of total offense and seven first downs. The expectation is a lot of Denzel Ward versus Garrett Wilson, forcing other Jets players to step up. Who will it be? Browns cover on the road.

 

Before we shift to other picks considered, here are a few additional picks that would have made sense when it comes to Dumb and Dumber quotes:

The “If Only” Picks (Perfect for Dumb and Dumber)

  • Drake Maye and the Patriots: “No way. That’s great. WE’VE LANDED ON THE MOON!”
  • Temple Owls: “Nice set of hooters you got there.”
  • Denver Broncos: “I expected the Rocky Mountains to be a little rockier than this.”
  • Penn State: “Against the law to have an open alcohol container in the state of Pennsylvania”

On the Outside Looking In (Others I Considered):

  • Iowa Hawkeyes (+3.5) at Washington Huskies – Washington 126th in rushing offense, had lead on USC
  • Indiana Hoosiers (-7) at Nebraska Cornhuskers – Matt Rhule is 2-25 against AP Top 25 opponents
  • UCLA Bruins (+12.5) at Oregon Ducks – Bob Chesney off to 4-0 start and Bruins are 6th in scoring offense
  • Ole Miss Rebels (-8.5) at Vanderbilt Commodores – Coming off bye (and loss), how will Rebels rebound?
  • Virginia Tech Hokies (-8.5) at California Golden Bears – Long travel for Hokies, Cal has top 30 pass D
  • USC Trojans (+2) at Penn State Nittany Lions – PSU now favored in Whiteout game, still no Koby Howard
  • Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (+2.5) – Short week for Saints after ugly loss to Atlanta

 

Week 5 Football Betting Picks: SportsChump

$50 on Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots (-3 ½)

Prior to last week’s game at Buffalo, we were all collectively wondering if the off-season issues in New England were taking their toll and that the Super Bowl hangover was real.  Nobody gave them any chance against the Bills.  Then they took the field and scored in all four quarters, reminding Buffalo and their fans who won that division last year.  The win in Buffalo was exactly what the Pats needed, a boost of confidence and a provision of proof that rumors of Drake Maye’s demise were grossly exaggerated.  On the other side of the football, Kirk Cousins’ renaissance continues.  He’s 11th in the league in passing yards and tied for the league lead in passing touchdowns with Brock Purdy.  Expect that pace to cool off a bit against the Patriots who are second best in the league in defending the pass. 

The Raiders have been far more consistent than anyone expected, turning heads with their 3-1 start.  Their loss at Kansas City, however, reminded us that their first three wins came against teams that are a combined 1-11.  That’s not to suggest the Raiders aren’t good.  But heading into Foxborough to face a Patriots team that looks like it’s about to start playing better might be too tall a task for Las Vegas.  The hook doesn’t scare me here.  I’ll take the Patriots minus three-and-a-half.

$40 on Indianapolis Colts/Pittsburgh Steelers (Over 44)

Guess who ranks bottom five in defending the pass.  The Indianapolis Colts.  Guess which team is looking to get their quarterback to throw the ball farther downfield.  The Pittsburgh Steelers.  I hear there’s some inclement weather hitting the Midwest soon so stay tuned to that before betting your mortgage on the over in Indianapolis versus Pittsburgh, but both these teams can score.  It’s ugly when they do, but they do.  The Colts have put up 30 in two of their first four games behind the unstoppability of Jonathan Taylor and the methodical Steelers have scored 30 and 24 in their last two.  Because no one thinks much of either of these teams, the over/under is deceivingly low at 44 but I’m taking it to exceed that number.  You also may want to sneak a peek at Aaron Rodgers’ over 225 passing yards.  Note: He’s averaging 250 a game.

$30 on Aaron Rodgers (Over 225 passing yards)

Ya know what?  I just talked myself into it.  If there’s any truth to the rumor of Mike McCarthy looking to open things up with Aaron Rodgers, and he’s already averaging 250 yards passing a game, over 225 yards makes perfect sense to me when he’s going against one of the NFL’s worst passing defenses.  One or two big plays from Rodgers to Metcalf or Wilson and I’m halfway there.  For shits and giggles, I’ll be laddering 250, 275 and 300.  Aaron Rodgers over 225 passing yards for $30 please, Alex.

$20 on Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (-8)

There’s something wrong deep within the Buccaneers organization.  Despite all the Fire Bowles sentiment that pervades the fan base, he remains head coach and likely will for the remainder of the season.  That’s just not how the Glazers do things.  Here’s a newsflash for you.  After a disappointing 0-4 start, Tampa Bay’s point differential is only -20, which means they’re not getting blown out.  Every single one of their losses was within one touchdown.  They just can’t seem to score.  They’re one of nine teams averaging less than 20 points per game.  In other words, this team is worse than their record indicates, if that’s even possible.  Fans are waiting for the other cleat to drop… and it might this Thursday. 

This week, the stagnant but teetering Buccaneers will travel to Dallas to play against a team that is also not living up to its potential.  Despite its win in Houston last Sunday, the Cowboys keep running into their same old problems.  Only three other teams in the league (Arizona, Detroit and Washington) have allowed more points through four games.  This week, that defense will get a breather against a team starting a rookie quarterback and a sideline that has been riddled with questionable and predictable playcalling.  Amazingly this line opened at 10 and dropped to eight, which means some poor schmucks are betting a lot of money on the Bucs.  Not me.  I’m on the other side.  Cowboys minus eight.

$10 on Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars in London (- 4 ½)

It’s odd to say that the Jaguars are better than the Philadelphia Eagles… but they are.  They’re better offensively, they’re better defensively and they’re better coached.  That sounds weird, doesn’t it, but it’s the case, at least in October 2026.  This line opened at 4 ½ and quickly jumped to 7 ½ when their Philly’s Pro Bowl offensive tackle Lane Johnson retired suddenly.  Just when we thought things couldn’t get any shakier in Philly.  The Eagles are still adjusting to life without AJ Brown and Saquon Barkley is starting to show his age.  That leaves very few options for Jalen Hurts who is 24th in the league in passing.  Add to the fact that the Jags defense is playing better than people give them credit and we have a recipe for disaster. 

This game is being played in London, where it seems the Jags play every year.  In fact, the Jags have played far more games overseas (14) than any NFL franchise.  It’s a shame the good people of Duval won’t get to experience this beatdown in person but at least it will save the local sheriff’s office from a spike in arrests from visiting Philadelphians.  Jacksonville covers the four-and-a-half as the batteries rain down on Siriani.

Week 5 Football Betting Picks: Special Guest BCole

$50 on Cowboys (-8) over Bucs

I love my Bucs but there is no way I see us pulling this out with the way this team has looked this far. I just hope we don’t have to add anyone else to IR after this matchup. Sadly, I’m taking the Cowboys.

$40 on Florida (-13.5) over South Carolina

Florida needs a redemption game after the loss to Mizzou and I believe this will be one to shake the loss off and get back on track. Safe to say I’m taking the Gators.

$30 on Bears over Packers (-2.5)

The Bears have proven themselves to be a force to be reckoned with and this will include the Packers who continue to struggle with injuries and criminals. I’m taking the Bears.

$20 USF and the 7 points over UTSA

Despite what Vegas thinks, I have faith in the USF Bulls and their ability to win this game outright. UTSA hasn’t proven to be the better team from my viewpoint and so I’m taking the Bulls and the points.

$10 Giants and the 3 points over the Commanders

Despite Winston proving he is equally apt to throw TDs as he is Interceptions, I believe this team will still come out ahead over the banged up and bruised Commanders. I’m taking the Giants and the points.

 

Last Week’s Recap

  • $50: Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers – INCORRECT
  • $40: Washington Huskies at USC Trojans (-9) – INCORRECT
  • $30: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-6.5) – INCORRECT
  • $20: Auburn Tigers at Tennessee Volunteers (-6.5) – CORRECT
  • $10: Florida Gators (-4.5) at Missouri Tigers – INCORRECT

Season Stats for Kevin Paul at TWHS (Top Five Only)

  • NFL: 2-6 (-$150)
  • CFB: 7-5 ($10)
  • Overall: 9-11 (-$140)

Season Stats for Kevin Paul at TWHS (By Confidence)

  • $50: 1-3
  • $40: 2-2
  • $30: 1-3
  • $20: 2-2
  • $10: 3-1

Week-by-Week for Kevin Paul and TWHS (Top Five Only)

  • Week 01: NFL: 1-1 (-$20) | CFB 2-1 (-$10) | Week: 3-2 (-$30) | Overall: 3-2 (-$30)
  • Week 02: NFL: 0-2 (-$80) | CFB 2-1 ($30) | Week: 2-3 (-$50) | Overall: 5-5 (-$80)
  • Week 03: NFL: 1-1 ($30) | CFB 2-1 ($20) | Week: 3-2 ($50) | Overall: 8-7 (-$30)
  • Week 04: NFL: 0-2 (-$80) | CFB 1-2 (-$30) | Week: 1-4 (-$110) | Overall: 9-11 (-$140)

 

Chime in with your top picks for the week. Thank you for visiting The Wife Hates/Loves Sports!

If you enjoy The Wife Hates Sports, you can support my work by buying from Fanatics through my site.  It’s of no additional charge to you.  I simply get a cut of any Fanatics sale purchased through links here.  That goes for any Fanatics Experience ad within posts or via the banners on the home page.

Image Credit: Dumb and Dumber