Happy New Year! Another contest comes to a close. I would like to thank my good friend the SportsChump for partaking in this contest again. It’s always fun to exchange picks and support each of our sites during the football season. That plus including some of our friends and family into the mix. As with every year, our guests had some great moments and we appreciate their support – and in general, just coming along for the ride. If the Chump is reading this, how about we add in some playoff prognostication this year again? I’m game if you are. Let’s wrap up another regular season. Let’s roll with our Week 18 Football Picks and Top Bets.

As I mentioned last week, the final weeks are always challenging. Bowl season features opt outs for both teams. You can google opt-out trackers, as there are plenty of them out there. Winter weather also can have an impact on games. Injuries are aplenty. Some teams are not-so-secretly sitting guys and tanking. Teams are fighting for the playoffs. Players are fighting for bonus incentives. The options are endless. It’s not always easy to pick up on every scenario.

With so many variables, my focus again was on teams that have a lot to play for.

Contest Reminder

This is a season long contest with potential prizes going out to our winners, so if you want to join in on the fun, drop a comment here or over at the land of the SportsChump.  We take our top five games of the week against the spread. If you beat us and go undefeated, that leads to fun prizes and heaps of praise on our websites.

With that said, here are our TOP FIVE Best Bets for the week, including my Week 18 Football Picks and Top Bets. The list is ranked in order of confidence, from 50 “dollars” down to $10.

Week 18 Football Picks and Top Bets – The “A Lot to Play For” Edition: Part II

KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates Sports

$50: Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-1.5)

Let’s get wild, shall we? We have a battle for the NFC’s top seed. Winner gets the bye. Why not make it the highest confidence game of the week? The Niners took game one earlier in the year in Seattle. In fact, San Francisco seems to be clicking offensively at the right time, averaging over 42 points a game over the last three weeks (Titans, Colts, and Bears). George Kittle has been battling through injuries and is expected to be back. On the flip side, Sam Darnold has been up-and-down as of late. Over his last seven games, Darnold has 8 TD and 8 INT. This game comes down to Darnold and whether Seattle’s 3rd ranked run defense can shut Christian McCaffrey down. I don’t see it. 49ers cover at home.

$40: CFP Quarterfinal: 6) Ole Miss Rebels vs Georgia Bulldogs (-6.5)

Ole Miss had Georgia on the ropes back in October. I picked the Rebels in that game. They took care of Tulane last week. The Ole Miss offense showed plenty of explosiveness despite the absence of Lane Kiffin. That was to be expected, but it was also Tulane. This is SEC rival Georgia. The Bulldogs appear to be peaking defensively at the right time. Georgia has allowed 29 points combined over its last four games. That includes games against Texas, Alabama, and Georgia Tech. The Bulldogs have allowed just 12 passing TD’s over 13 games. This should be a fun watch, but my gut says the Bulldogs keep rolling. Georgia covers at the Sugar Bowl.

$30: Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-2.5)

This feels like a trap game. Detroit put up 52 points on the Bears back in September, but this is a very different Chicago team. The Bears can earn the #2 seed with a win or an Eagles loss. That would set up a matchup with the rival Packers – a team that is battling through a crippling number of injuries. Dan Campbell will not rest his players, at least that’s what the reports are saying, despite the fact the Lions are out of it. The Lions have lost three straight (to the Rams, Steelers, and Vikings). Not exactly offensive juggernauts. Plain and simple, Chicago has more to play for and will not be resting anyone. Bears cover at home.

$20: CFP Quarterfinal: 9) Alabama Crimson Tide (+7.5) vs 1) Indiana Hoosiers

Playoff teams with a bye are 0-5 as I write this. That includes Miami’s surprising upset victory over Ohio State. We all know Indiana is the real deal, but how will they carry the weight of being the top seed and facing a blue blood team like Alabama? For me it comes down to Fernando Mendoza making plays when it matters. Alabama’s pass defense ranks 10th in College Football (168.4 ypg allowed). The Crimson Tide has 11 INT’s on the year and only 13 passing TD’s allowed. Alabama took off after an abysmal start at Oklahoma last week. My gut says they build off that momentum and hang with the top-seeded Hoosiers. Give me Indiana and the points at the Rose Bowl.

$10: Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5)

This should be fun. One of the most heated rivalries in sports for the division title and a playoff berth. Lamar Jackson appears trending to return and start, which will be huge for Baltimore. I had the Ravens penciled in to start the week and changed my mind after looking at the rivalry’s recent history. Since Lamar Jackson’s debut in 2018, the Ravens have faced the Steelers in Pittsburgh seven times. The Steelers are 4-3 in those games. Two of the three losses were by a combined five points and one went to OT. Nine of the last eleven have been one-score games. Expect a dog fight. Give me the Steelers and the points at home.

 

On the Outside Looking In (Others I Considered):

  • CFP Quarterfinal: 5) Oregon Ducks (-2.5) vs 4) Texas Tech Red Raiders – I like the over in this game
  • Los Angeles Chargers (+12.5) at Denver Broncos – Broncos can still get #1 seed, Chargers resting starters
  • Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) – Eagles resting players, despite chance at #2 seed
  • New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-7) – Expectation is that Buffalo will rest players
  • Tennessee Titans (+12.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars – Jags can technically still land the #1 seed
  • Carolina Panthers (+3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Bucs have lost 7 of 8; Can’t trust either team

 

Week 18 Football Picks: SportsChump

(Coming Soon)

 

Week 18 Football Picks: Guest

(Coming Soon)

 

Last Week’s Recap

  • $50: New England Patriots (-12.5) at New York Jets – CORRECT
  • $40: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5) at Miami Dolphins – INCORRECT
  • $30: Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (+7.5) – INCORRECT
  • $20: Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers (-2.5) – INCORRECT
  • $10: Pinstripe Bowl: Penn State Nittany Lions (+3.5) vs Clemson Tigers – CORRECT

Season Stats for Kevin Paul at TWHS (Top Five Only)

  • NFL: 24-21-4 ($170)
  • CFB: 17-19 (-$160)
  • Overall: 41-40-4 ($10)

Season Stats for Kevin Paul at TWHS (By Confidence)

  • $50: 10-7
  • $40: 8-9
  • $30: 6-11
  • $20: 8-7-2
  • $10: 9-6-2

Week-by-Week for Kevin Paul and The Wife Hates Sports (Top Five Only)

  • Week 01: NFL: 2-2 ($50) | CFB 1-0 ($20) | Week: 3-2 ($70) | Overall: 3-2 ($70)
  • Week 02: NFL: 2-1 ($40) | CFB 0-2 (-$50) | Week: 2-3 (-$10) | Overall: 5-5 ($60)
  • Week 03: NFL: 1-2 (-$40) | CFB 1-1 (-$10) | Week: 2-3 (-$50) | Overall: 7-8 ($10)
  • Week 04: NFL: 1-1 (-$30) | CFB 2-1 ($0) | Week: 3-2 (-$30) | Overall: 10-10 (-$20)
  • Week 05: NFL: 0-2 (-$70) | CFB 1-2 ($20) | Week: 1-4 (-$50) | Overall: 11-14 (-$70)
  • Week 06: NFL: 1-2 (-$40) | CFB 2-0 ($30) | Week: 3-2 (-$10) | Overall: 14-16 (-$80)
  • Week 07: NFL: 3-0 ($120) | CFB 1-1 (-$10) | Week: 4-1 ($110) | Overall: 18-17 ($30)
  • Week 08: NFL: 1-0 ($50) | CFB 0-4 (-$100) | Week: 1-4 (-$50) | Overall: 19-21 (-$20)
  • Week 09: NFL: 1-3 (-$100) | CFB 1-0 ($10) | Week: 2-3 (-$90) | Overall: 21-24 (-$110)
  • Week 10: NFL: 2-0-1 ($50) | CFB 0-2 (-$80) | Week: 2-2-1 (-$30) | Overall: 23-26-1 (-$140)
  • Week 11: NFL: 1-1-1 ($10) | CFB 2-0 ($70) | Week: 3-1-1 ($80) | Overall: 26-27-2 (-$60)
  • Week 12: NFL: 1-2 (-$70) | CFB 2-0 ($40) | Week: 3-2 (-$30) | Overall: 29-29-2 (-$90)
  • Week 13: NFL: 0-1 (-$40) | CFB 2-2 (-$10) | Week: 2-3 (-$50) | Overall: 31-32-2 (-$140)
  • Week 14: NFL: 1-0-2 ($50) | CFB 0-2 (-$70) | Week: 1-2-2 (-$20) | Overall: 32-34-4 (-$160)
  • Week 15: NFL: 3-1 ($110) | CFB 0-1 (-$20) | Week: 3-2 ($90) | Overall: 35-36-4 (-$70)
  • Week 16: NFL: 3-0 ($120) | CFB 1-1 (-$10) | Week: 4-1 ($110) | Overall: 39-37-4 ($40)
  • Week 17: NFL: 1-3 (-$40) | CFB 1-0 ($10) | Week: 2-3 (-$30) | Overall: 41-40-4 ($10)

 

Chime in with your top picks for the week.Thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!

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