I’m trying to think of a character that gets their butt kicked throughout a movie, yet keeps coming back for more. The holiday season is steadily approaching, so that takes me to John McClane in Die Hard or Harry and Marv from Home Alone. Obviously, the better option to pick would be McClane, because he wins and eventually gets to watch Hans Gruber fall to his death. That’s how this season’s written predictions have felt, like I’m getting my you-know-what handed to me week after week. Yet, I’m still standing. I just may have glass in my feet. So, here we are, I suppose. Yippee Ki-Yay, it’s time for our Week 10 Football Picks and Top Bets.

Happy trails, bad picks. Hello, good picks.

Contest Reminder

This is a season long contest with potential prizes going out to our winners, so if you want to join in on the fun, drop a comment here or over at the land of the SportsChump.  We take our top five games of the week against the spread. If you beat us and go undefeated, that leads to fun prizes and heaps of praise on our websites.

With that said, here are our TOP FIVE Best Bets for the week, including my Week 10 Football Picks and Top Bets. The list is ranked in order of confidence, from 50 “dollars” down to $10.

Week 10 Football Picks and Top Bets – The Tenth Edition

KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates Sports

$50: Indiana Hoosiers (-13.5) at Penn State Nittany Lions

Well, here we are. With all the abysmal history against Penn State, Indiana is heavy favorites against the Nittany Lions on the road and I’m all over it – to send my alma mater to a 3-6 record after being a preseason National Championship favorite. Why? For a number of reasons, really. Near the top, the Hoosiers rank 2nd in total offense (504.9 ypg), while Penn State ranks 108th (335.6 ypg). Penn State has no vertical pass game and its receivers rarely get any separation. Penn State’s offense revolves around RB Kaytron Allen, who will need success against Indiana’s defense that is ranked 4th in the country. I could keep going, but I won’t. Free Koby Howard! Hoosiers cover on the road.

$40: Detroit Lions (-8.5) at Washington Commanders

The Lions are seeking revenge from last season’s shocking postseason loss to the Commanders. Washington will be without stars Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin. The Commanders have been absolutely shredded defensively over the last few weeks. In fact, Washington ranks in the bottom five in total defense, allowing 377.8 yards per game. They will be facing an explosive Detroit offense that is loaded with weapons. Marcus Mariota is one of the more dependable backups in the NFL, but the injuries and lack of depth on both sides of the ball is really going to hurt Washington, especially against the high-flying Detroit offense. The Commanders simply don’t have enough to hang around. Lions cover on the road.

$30: BYU Cougars (+11.5) at Texas Tech Red Raiders

Call Admiral Ackbar, because this feels like a trap. OK, I’ll bite. Both teams rank in the top ten currently. Checking the injury reports, BYU star RB LJ Martin is expected to play. Texas Tech has a number of WR’s out, leaving a lack of depth in the pass game. Despite that, the Red Raiders are an explosive offense, ranking 5th in the country (492.3 ypg). BYU is 33rd. Defensively, BYU is 25th and Texas Tech is 10th. Texas Tech has the number one rushing defense, so LJ Martin will have his hands full. That will be the key to the game, if Martin (five 100-yard rushing games this season) can find enough yards and keep Texas Tech’s offense off the field. Give me the Cougars and the points on the road.

$20: Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts (-6)

The Colts burned me last week, but I’m back with them again. File this under the “fool me once” department, I guess. Statistically speaking, it’s an interesting game. Two of the more explosive backs are featured (Jonathan Taylor and Bijan Robinson). Although, Robinson has been held to less than 50 rushing yards in each of the last three games – all Atlanta losses. At a higher level, the Colts have the 2nd ranked offense in the NFL, while Atlanta has the 4th ranked defense. But let’s look back at Robinson’s recent performance as compared to Indy’s defense. The Colts rank fourth in rushing defense (87.0 ypg allowed). Let’s not forget Indianapolis just traded for Sauce Gardner, too. Colts cover at home.

$10: New York Giants at Chicago Bears (-3.5)

The Giants are a mess and the Bears are a bit of an inconsistent mystery. Chicago (5-3) has defeated the bad teams they have faced, including the Commanders, Raiders, Saints, Bengals, and Cowboys. Although, a few of those games have been rollercoaster rides, including last week against Cincinnati. This is more me trusting Ben Johnson at home. It’s even more of New York’s last of consistency on the ground, both offensively and defensively. Specifically, the Giants rank 31st in rushing defense, allowing 150.0 ypg on the ground. The Bears rank 2nd in rushing offense. Only the Bills have gained more yards on the ground. That’s the key to this game. Bears cover at home.

 

On the Outside Looking In (Others I Considered – Large List This Week):

  • Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) at Green Bay Packers – Packers show up against good teams
  • James Madison Dukes (-13.5) at Marshall Thundering Herd – These two teams took it to OT last year
  • Ohio State Buckeyes (-28.5) at Purdue Boilermakers – OSU dominates teams, but a big spread
  • Georgia Bulldogs (-7.5) at Mississippi State Bulldogs – MSU burned me before at home

 

Week 10 Football Picks: SportsChump

$50 on New York Giants at Chicago Bears (-3 ½)

Every time I bet on the Bears, I feel like I should have my head examined, or at least have a Bear Breathalyzer installed on my gambling app but, sensibly, home to the Walking Wounded Giants and laying only 3 ½ seems too good to be true.  The Giants are still reeling from Cam Skattebo’s injury and have been playing without Malik Nabers since Week 4.  Jaxson Dart has been a breath of fresh air, but the G-Men are back to relying on Tyrone Tracy and Devin Singletary.  It’s not like the Bears are great against the run but neither Tracy nor Singletary strike fear into the hearts of opposing linemen.  At 2-7, staring a potential high draft pick in the face, I can’t help but wonder whether the Giants want to win games. 

Meanwhile, the Bears have legitimate playoff hopes.  The Bears haven’t made the playoffs since 2020 and haven’t won a playoff game since 2010.  Their fans are giddy, near disbelief.  Far from consistent, the Bears are winning the games they’re supposed to.  This game at home to the Giants is a game they’re supposed to win.  The Giants have yet to win on the road and, after Chicago, have a heinous stretch where they’ll play the Packers, Lions and Patriots.  They’ll pencil this Chicago game as one they’ll want to win.  I’m just not sure they’re capable.  Bears at home minus the 3 ½.

$40 on New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2 ½)

Everyone is high on the Patriots right now.  And why wouldn’t they be?  Drake Maye is peaking early.  The Pats, not the Bills, lead the AFC East and we all forgot that only three months ago, Stefon Diggs was caught on some party boat distributing pink cocaine to bikini-clad women.  Winning curing all ills remains undefeated.  This week, Mr. Maye comes to Tampa Bay whose team, while still banged up, is coming off a well-needed bye.  My source(s) in the Bay tell me the bye could not have come at a better time.  The Bucs are still, as of this writing, mums the word on Bucky Irving’s return, which means it will be a game time decision.  If not, Rachaad White will have to grind it out against the league’s best rush defense.  But this game will be more about what kind of pressure the Bucs defense can put on Drake Maye. 

The Patriots have won six straight and have yet to lose on the road BUT only one of those road wins (at Buffalo) is notable.  Those other road wins were against three of the worst teams in the league (Miami, Tennessee and New Orleans).  If you’re not beating those teams handily, you have a problem.  Tampa Bay’s defense is considerably better than those other four teams.  When New England finds out they won’t be able to run the ball, how will Maye handle the pressure Bowles will throw at him with an extra week to prepare.  We know Baker Mayfield will want to get back to hurling the ball around Ray Jay after his first sub-par game before the bye.  The line is small and giving too much credit to hot, yet young, New England.  I’m taking the Bucs and laying the two-and-a-half.

$30 on New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-5)

There are three teams in the league with only one win.  Can you name them?  Time’s up.  The Jets, Titans and Saints only have one win each.  When I look at this Saints season, I’m still shocked they went into the season essentially without a quarterback.  New Orleans has already benched Spencer Rattler for Tyler Shough who they apparently plan to kick the tires on before they head into the 2026 draft with a quarterback on their mind.  The Panthers shook up the world last week by winning in Lambeau and,

I can’t believe I’m about to say this, have the playoffs in their sights.  The Panthers are 5-4, difficult to beat at home and the Saints have one of the worst point differentials in the league.  It’s not that they’re horrible defensively, although they’re not good.  They can’t score.  They’ve scored the fourth fewest points in the league.  I’ll take the Panthers who look to put heat on the Bucs in the NFC South.  Laying five isn’t that much against a team that can’t score the football.  Panthers minus.

$20 on Detroit Lions (Over 29 ½ points scored)

Let’s try something different here, not a point spread but rather a team’s total points scored bet.  The Detroit Lions are pissed.  They lost at home last week to the Vikings in a game nobody predicted.  The Lions offense looked stagnant.  Jared Goff had one of his worst games of the year and their ground game wasn’t much better.  These are not the Lions we’ve come to know.  Theirs is a high-powered offense with legit Super Bowl aspirations.  This lapse won’t happen two games in a row.  They play Washington who lost their quarterback last week to a backwards elbow.  That’s right.  I said backwards elbow.  I know you’ve seen the graphic image of Jayden Daniels trying to break his fall, only to break his elbow. 

The Commanders won’t be able to keep up with Detroit’s offense.  The line is 8 but I’m not betting the line.  Detroit’s over/under for total points scored is 29.5.  I see very few punts coming for Detroit against Washington’s defense that is bottom five in yards allowed per game and allowing 26 points a game.  They allowed 38 to Seattle last week, 28 to Kansas City the week before that, 44 to the Cowboys and inexplicably 25 to the Bears.  A pissed off Detroit team should be looking to fine tune their offense for a late season stretch against a defense that can’t stop anyone and an offense that shouldn’t be able to stay on the field. Detroit Lions over 29 ½.

$10 on Cleveland Browns at New York Jets (+2 ½)

I can’t believe I’m betting on this game.  When reviewing this weekend’s slate and seeing that the Browns were playing the Jets, I let out a guffaw.  How many people do you think at MetLife Stadium will be intently paying attention to this game?  How much would you pay to see this game, and does it rival how much you would pay to NOT see this game?  You can make an argument that neither team should be favored but for some reason, the Browns are.  I suppose one team had to be.  The Jets have all but traded half their roster away to other teams with the hopes of clearing cap space and compiling draft picks. 

This pick is not a vote of confidence for the Jets but rather a statement that the Cleveland Browns should not be road favorites over anyone.  Prior to their first win of the season, one they’re probably still celebrating, the Jets only lost to the Broncos and (play-off bound?) Panthers by a combined nine points.  Neither team has anything to play for other than pride so I’ll take the sorry-ass home team plus the points over the sorry-ass road team that shouldn’t be laying them.  Jets + 2 ½.

 

Last Week’s Recap

  • $50: Los Angeles Chargers (-8.5) at Tennessee Titans – INCORRECT
  • $40: Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-8.5) – INCORRECT
  • $30: Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers – INCORRECT
  • $20: San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at New York Giants – CORRECT
  • $10: Penn State Nittany Lions at Ohio State Buckeyes (-18.5) – CORRECT

Season Stats for Kevin Paul at TWHS (Top Five Only)

  • NFL: 12-13 (-$20)
  • CFB: 9-11 (-$90)
  • Overall: 21-24 (-$110)

Season Stats for Kevin Paul at TWHS (By Confidence)

  • $50: 5-4
  • $40: 4-5
  • $30: 2-7
  • $20: 5-4
  • $10: 5-4

Week-by-Week for Kevin Paul and The Wife Hates Sports (Top Five Only)

  • Week 01: NFL: 2-2 ($50) | CFB 1-0 ($20) | Week: 3-2 ($70) | Overall: 3-2 ($70)
  • Week 02: NFL: 2-1 ($40) | CFB 0-2 (-$50) | Week: 2-3 (-$10) | Overall: 5-5 ($60)
  • Week 03: NFL: 1-2 (-$40) | CFB 1-1 (-$10) | Week: 2-3 (-$50) | Overall: 7-8 ($10)
  • Week 04: NFL: 1-1 (-$30) | CFB 2-1 ($0) | Week: 3-2 (-$30) | Overall: 10-10 (-$20)
  • Week 05: NFL: 0-2 (-$70) | CFB 1-2 ($20) | Week: 1-4 (-$50) | Overall: 11-14 (-$70)
  • Week 06: NFL: 1-2 (-$40) | CFB 2-0 ($30) | Week: 3-2 (-$10) | Overall: 14-16 (-$80)
  • Week 07: NFL: 3-0 ($120) | CFB 1-1 (-$10) | Week: 4-1 ($110) | Overall: 18-17 ($30)
  • Week 08: NFL: 1-0 ($50) | CFB 0-4 (-$100) | Week: 1-4 (-$50) | Overall: 19-21 (-$20)
  • Week 09: NFL: 1-3 (-$100) | CFB 1-0 ($10) | Week: 2-3 (-$90) | Overall: 21-24 (-$110)

 

Movie Reference and Image Credit: Die Hard

Chime in with your top picks for the week.  Thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!

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