Week 11 NFL Top Bets, CFB Picks, Darrell Harden, and Weddings

4-1 last week. It felt like a 5-0 week was coming for the first time this year, but the late charge of the Cleveland Browns (facing the Ravens on the road) spoiled that party a bit. Quite honestly, if you include my “on the outside looking in” picks, it was an 8-2 record against the spread last week. For now, the show must go on, and the parties must continue. Speaking of parties, we here are carving out small windows for sports prognostication in between festivities of a family wedding this weekend. This weekend features zero arguments about hot dog buns or understanding how the wedding planner says the word “cake”. For those of you scratching your heads a bit, that’s a movie reference to “Father of the Bride” (it’s never good to feel you need to list the movie reference). Anyway, on top of that party, we have another mini-celebration to add in – and that’s the return of good friend Darrell Harden. He’s back with his picks, and we’ll see if he can match last year’s stellar 5-0 performance. And with that, we are on to our Week 11 NFL Top Bets and Week 12 College Football hot picks against the spread.

Quick Reminder: You Can Win Free Stuff

Again, this is a season long contest with potential prizes going out to our winners, so if you want to join in on the fun, drop a comment here at The Wife Hates Sports… or over at the land of the SportsChump.  We take our top five games of the week against the spread. If you beat us and go undefeated, that could lead to something. To this point in the season, the prizes are officially collecting dust.

Here are our TOP FIVE Best Bets for the week, including my Week 11 NFL Top Bets and Week 12 College Football Best Bets.

The list is ranked in order of confidence, from 50 “points” down to 10.  Please note that all of my lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook (I use them a ton – maybe some day they’ll notice).

DraftKings Sportsbook: Week 11 NFL Lines | Week 12 College Football Lines

Week 11 NFL Top Bets and CFB Picks – The Friends and Weddings Edition

KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates Sports

$50: Dallas Cowboys (-10.5) at Carolina Panthers

Let’s check some stats tied to this game. First, set aside the road loss for the Cowboys in Arizona. Outside the Cardinals, the Cowboys have played in four other games against teams with passing offenses that average under 200 yards per game (Giants twice, Jets, and Patriots). In those games, the Cowboys are 4-0 with a combined scoring margin edge of 157-30. Yes, you guessed it, the Panthers fall in that range, averaging 185.2 yards per game through the air. Dallas, meanwhile, ranks 7th in the NFL in passing offense and 4th in total offense. The Panthers have a -4 turnover margin and rank near the bottom in total sacks (17 through 9 games). This means more time in the pocket for Dak Prescott and a Carolina offense that is unlikely to keep up. Cowboys cover on the road.

$40: Michigan Wolverines (-19) at Maryland Terrapins

My comparison starts with Penn State’s offense facing the Wolverines versus the Terps. It was night and day for Drew Allar. Facing Maryland, there was time to throw and limited pressure. Big numbers… and a 51-15 blowout win. For Michigan, the Wolverines were smothering. I could see Taulia Tagovailoa and Maryland’s offense struggling as he did when he faced Penn State. Furthermore, look at how Maryland has played since the beginning of October. The Terrapins are 1-4, with losses to Penn State, Ohio State, Northwestern, and Illinois. Two of those losses were expected, but the other two? During that stretch, Maryland has been outscored 158-96. Now, they face Michigan’s defense that ranks 12th against the run and 10th against the pass. Good luck with that. Wolverines cover on the road.

$30: Georgia Bulldogs (-10) at Tennessee Volunteers

The undefeated Bulldogs have won six straight games in this rivalry, with an average margin of victory of nearly four touchdowns. Yes, that does include a rough patch for the Vols, but Tennessee has had a bit of an up-and-down season to this point. Meanwhile, Georgia’s offense has scored 30 or more points in five straight games. Both teams rank well against the run (Georgia – 19th, Tennessee – 26th). Both also rank well against the pass (Georgia – 10th, Tennessee – 35th). Each team has more INT’s than TD’s allowed through the air. Statistically, there’s nothing that really shows a drastic difference. It’s more the experience and the roll that the Bulldogs have been on. They know how to win these games and win them big (e.g. last week versus Ole Miss). Georgia covers on the road.

$20: Washington Huskies (+1.5) at Oregon State Beavers

It doesn’t happen often when an undefeated team and playoff contender shows up on the list as an underdog. Obviously, Oregon State is no pushover, but these are the games that you expect Heisman contenders like Michael Penix Jr. to step up and take over. Oregon State ranks 20th in rushing offense and is likely to set the tone with its run game and try to control the clock. The obvious goal would be keeping Washington’s top ranked passing offense (378 ypg, nearly 40 yards more than any team) off the field as much as possible. The Beavers rank well both against the run and the pass, so Penix Jr. will have his hands full in a hostile road environment. But Penix Jr. (28 TD, 7 INT) has been stellar all year, with 8 TD and 2 INT against AP ranked opponents and over a 70% completion percentage in road games. This game comes down to the Heisman hopeful and I think he rises to the occasion. Huskies top the Beavers.

$10: Arizona Cardinals (+5) at Houston Texans

Kyler Murray made an impact in his first game back from injury. He’s likely to improve and Arizona’s offense is likely to perform much more consistently with him under center. The Texans, despite battling through injuries, posted a huge win over the Bengals last week. For Houston to have success, C.J. Stroud needs to be on point. Arizona’s defense ranks 11th against the pass, allowing 208.4 ypg. Against the run, Arizona ranks in the bottom five of the league, but the Texans have struggled with its run game. Overall, three of Houston’s four losses have come against NFL pass defenses that rank near or above the Cardinals. The combination of Murray pushing the offense to a higher level and the Arizona pass defense holding Stroud somewhat in check should result in a close game. Cardinals cover on the road.

On the Outside Looking In (Others I Like):

• Louisville Cardinals (+1) at Miami Hurricanes – Cardinals not same on road, but like their talent
• New York Giants (+8.5) at Washington Commanders – Rivalry has been close in recent years
• Oregon Ducks (-23.5) at Arizona State Sun Devils – I like the Ducks a lot, but 24 is a risky ask

Week 11 NFL Top Bets: Special Guest Darrell Harden

I’m sorry

But the old Taylor can’t come to the phone right now

Why? Oh, ’cause she’s dead (oh)

“Look What You Made Me Do” from Reputation … Taylor’s version coming soon

You taught me ’bout your past, thinkin’ your future was me

And you were tossing me the car keys, “F**k the patriarchy”

Keychain on the ground, we were always skippin’ town

“All Too Well (10 Minute Version)” from Red (Taylor’s Version)

Sometimes I feel like everybody is a sexy baby

And I’m a monster on the hill

Too big to hang out, slowly lurching toward your favorite city

Pierced through the heart, but never killed

“Anti-Hero” from Midnights

I see me padding ‘cross your wooden floors

With my Eagles t-shirt hanging from the door

“Gold Rush” from evermore

You got that long hair, slicked back, white T-shirt

And I got that good girl faith and a tight little skirt

And when we go crashing down, we come back every time

‘Cause we never go out of style, we never go out of style

“Style” from 1989 (Taylor’s Version)

Week 11 NFL Top Bets: SportsChump

$50 on Duke Blue Devils (-3 ½) at Virginia Cavaliers

I’m not quite sure what happened to Duke football.  We’ve talked about this in previous weeks.  They just can’t beat a ranked team.  With the sole exception of their early season victory over Clemson, the Dukies have fallen to Notre Dame, Florida State, Louisville, and lost an overtime heartbreaker to North Carolina.  This week, they play a team who is the exact opposite of ranked.  The Virginia Cavaliers are a lowly 2-8, their lone bright spot of the season an inconceivable victory over the Tar Heels.  At this point, the Cavaliers only have pride to play for but even that may have left campus early for Thanksgiving break.  The Dukies are the far better football team and, if motivated by last week’s loss, should go into Charlottesville and handle their business.  This spread is low so I’m jumping on it.  Duke minus 3 ½.

$40 on Michigan State at Indiana Hoosiers (-3 ½)

Michigan State probably cannot wait for this football season to end.  They are 1-6 in conference play.  They haven’t been that bad since 2016 and prior to that 2006.  This is a bad football team and a program in total disarray.  Indiana isn’t much better but at least we expect their football team to suck.  This is the perfect opportunity for the Hoosiers to kick their conference rivals while they’re down.  Indiana can be competitive when it wants to be, but I can’t say the same for a Michigan State team that is officially in the play dead part of its rolling over.  Give me the Hoosiers minus the 3 ½.

$30 on Minnesota Golden Gophers at Ohio State Buckeyes (-27 ½)

Minnesota has played three ranked teams this season: North Carolina, Iowa and Michigan.  In those three games, they scored 13, 10 and 12 points respectively.  This week, they travel to Columbus to face the almighty Buckeyes.  The Buckeyes are the second-best defensive team in the nation, one of only two schools allowing under ten points a game this late into the season.  The Buckeyes are also scoring about 33 points per game.  Minnesota is a middle-of-the-road team defensively which means this game has bludgeoning written all over it.  The over/under is 50.  That along with common sense, tells me that Las Vegas does not like Minnesota to score very much.  That along with the recent suspension of Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh has everyone with a buckeye stuck to their helmet smelling blood in the water. 

They might not empty their playbook against Minnesota offensively, saving a little something for next week’s annual game of the year, but they won’t need to.  Minnesota’s inability to score will keep the Buckeyes with the ball, giving them plenty of opportunities to do what they do, which is beat an opponent handily.  Ohio State’s D will dominate, and the Bucks will cover the 27 ½ in their annual tune-up before their Thanksgiving bash with that team from up north.  Bucks cover.

$20 on Florida Gators (+11 ½) at Missouri Tigers

If it’s Saturday, that must mean more chatter from the Gainesville faithful about firing another football coach.  Billy Napier has yet to put forth any sort of consistent gameplan.  The Gators have lost three consecutive games and have allowed teams to score 39 or more in their last four.  The Gators sit at 5-5 and stare another missed bowl season squarely in the face.  If they don’t win this one on the road, it will be another long off-season while Coach Napier watches commits continue to break their promise to Florida and enroll in another program.  Napier’s job is safe, despite what it says in my multiple text strings from disgruntled fellow alum. 

But keeping things close in their final conference game would go a long way in keeping the off-season noise to a dull roar.  Missouri is in the top ten and sits at 8-2.  Florida is getting 11 ½ points.  Florida’s offense has not been a problem.  It’s their defense that has been abysmal.  Either way, the Gators should be competitive enough to give this the old college football try.  I’ll take the orange, blue and 11 ½.

$10 on Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Green Bay Packers

C’mon, you know I had to include an NFL game on the weekend’s slate.  The Green Bay Packers cannot beat a good team.  They have three wins this season against the Rams, Saints and Bears.  The Chargers are not a good football team but they’re not horrible.  The worst you can say about them is that they’re tremendous underachievers, which is what you can say about the Chargers every year.  They can’t beat a good team either.  What they can do, however, is beat a bad team.  They’ve lost to the Cowboys, Chiefs, Lions and Dolphins but have handled the Raiders, Jets and Bears. 

If the Chargers play to their capabilities, which is perennially a problem for them, they should go into Lambeau and cover the three.  The Packers still can’t run the football effectively which means Jordan Love will have to beat the Chargers with his arm.  Did that give you any bit of confidence?  Me neither.  Chargers minus three. 

Last Week’s Recap

• 50: Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) – INCORRECT
• 40: Michigan Wolverines (-4) at Penn State Nittany Lions – CORRECT
• 30: Alabama Crimson Tide (-11) at Kentucky Wildcats – CORRECT
• 20: Michigan Wolverines at Penn State Nittany Lions (UNDER 44.5) – CORRECT
• 10: Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) – CORRECT

• Extra: Duke Blue Devils (+12.5) at North Carolina Tar Heels – CORRECT
• Extra: Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1) – CORRECT
• Extra: Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-7) – INCORRECT
• Extra: Washington Commanders (+6) at Seattle Seahawks – CORRECT
• Extra: Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals (+2) – CORRECT

Season Stats for Kevin Paul and The Wife Hates Sports

• NFL: 13-15 (-$210)
• College: 15-7 ($290)
• Overall: 28-22 ($80)

Chime in with your top picks for the week.  Also, if you have interest in being a guest picker, let us know via the comments below. Thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!

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