After a torrid three weeks, last week was our first iffy performance. Patrick Mahomes sliding prevented a big selection from landing. The ugly and poor officiating in the wildly competitive Commanders-Eagles game was another blemish. Other than that – not too bad. Perhaps the Taylor Swift theme was enough to jinx these picks into a black hole of mediocrity. With that possibility hanging like a black cloud over my head, it’s time to keep it simple this week. Our Week 5 NFL Top Bets and Week 6 College Football hot picks against the spread will be themeless.

Just some general banter and a handful of stats to back each selection.

Again, this is a season long contest with potential prizes going out to our winners, so if you want to join in on the fun, drop a comment here at The Wife Hates Sports… or over at the land of the SportsChump.  We take our top five games of the week against the spread. If you beat us and go undefeated, that could lead to something. To this point in the season, the prizes are officially collecting dust.

Here are our TOP FIVE Best Bets for the week, including my Week 5 NFL Top Bets and Week 6 College Football Best Bets.

The list is ranked in order of confidence, from 50 “points” down to 10.  Please note that all of my lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook (I use them a ton – maybe some day they’ll notice).

DraftKings Sportsbook: Week 5 NFL Lines | Week 6 College Football Lines

Week 5 NFL Top Bets and CFB Picks – The “Keep it Simple” Edition

KP’s Picks: The Wife Hates Sports

$50: Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills (-5.5)

Hold onto your fish and chips, as the Jags get a second straight game in London. Perhaps the two- week time zone adjustment will benefit Jacksonville. Only, this time, there will be no Woody or Buzz Lightyear to save them. This week’s game is versus a Bills team that is chock-full of proverbial superheroes and a group that dismantled the explosive Dolphins last week. These Jags have been wildly consistent. Ten point road dub over the Colts followed by a 17-9 loss to the Chiefs. Then a 20-point blowout loss at home to Houston, followed by a 16-point win against the Falcons in London. What is consistent?  It’s the Bills offense and Josh Allen ever since its Week 1 loss to the Jets. Add in Buffalo’s defense, with a league leading 16 sacks and the team’s +6 turnover margin and it’s “Cheerio, Jags”. Bills cover in London.

$40: New York Giants at Miami Dolphins (-12.5)

Miami fell back down to Earth in a big way last week. This week’s recovery is a home game against the hapless Giants. Considering where I’m going with this pick, the Bears taught me nothing on Thursday night (destroying the “Commander-skins”). No, I’m focusing my eyes (and mind) on season stats, where Miami leads the NFL in total offense (511.0 ypg). The Giants, meanwhile, are second to last (252.0 ypg). New York has just four sacks in four games, meaning plenty of time in the pocket for Tua. That’s more time for Tyreek to get open. No pressure against one of the league’s most potent offenses, well – it doesn’t take a rocket scientist (or a SportsChump) to figure out what’s coming. Dolphins cover.

$30: Alabama Crimson Tide (-2.5) at Texas A&M Aggies

After its loss a few weeks ago to Texas, the world seems surprisingly quick to push aside Nick Saban and the Tide. Alabama has won 10 of its last 11 meetings in this series (dating back to 2013). Yes, A&M’s only win during that stretch was at home back in 2021, albeit by a slim 41-38 margin. Alabama’s pass defense ranks 23rd in yards allowed/game (194.2) and has more INT’s (6) than TD’s allowed (5). That defensive unit will be the toughest that A&M has had to face this season. Plain and simple, we aren’t used to seeing Saban-led Tide teams dropping two games with Halloween still weeks away – and I don’t see that happening this year either. Alabama covers on the road. 

$20: Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-10)

It took time to commit to it, but I’m taking Detroit as a double-digit favorite. We know this team is for real, but that doesn’t make it easier to put it in writing. Defensively, both teams have been aggressive in the trenches, combining for 25 total sacks (Detroit has the edge with 13). What sets them apart is offensively, where the Lions are 8th in total offense. Featuring weapons in both the run game and passing game, Detroit is creative and explosive. The winless Panthers – while featuring a handful of crafty veterans – has scored just 67 points in four games. Rookie QB Bryce Young ranks 33rd in the NFL with an abysmal 24.7 QBR. That simply won’t get it done facing Dan Campbell. Lions cover at home.

$10: Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-6) at Louisville Cardinals

The Irish came up golden for me last week, topping the pesky Blue Devils on the road. Another week, another road game against a ranked team. Notre Dame QB Sam Hartman (14 TD, 0 INT) has yet to throw an interception this season, and the Irish have added another dozen TD’s on the ground. Statistically, the Cardinals rank a respectable 56th in pass defense, allowing 218.2 ypg. Louisville has 5 INT with just 7 TD allowed through five games. However, let’s consider the opponents: Georgia Tech, Murray State, Indiana, Boston College, and N.C. State. That’s why I like an efficient Hartman and the Notre Dame offense to outlast the Cardinals, pulling away in the second half. Notre Dame covers on the road.

 

Week 5 NFL Top Bets: SportsChump

$50 on Colorado Buffaloes (-4) at Arizona State Sun Devils

We bring you back to our regularly scheduled programming… in prime time.  Three weeks ago, Deion Sanders’ Colorado Buffaloes were all anyone could talk about.  They followed up a night game against Colorado State, ESPN’s fifth most watched college football game ever, to having his cult of personality featured the following evening on 60 minutes.  Then came consecutive Saturdays where most figured Prime’s time would be grounded.  And it was.  The Buffaloes proved they weren’t on a par of programs like Oregon or USC.  At least not yet.  This weekend, they get back to playing opponents they can beat, like Arizona State.  The Sun Devils are dealing with four straight losses and only averaging 17.6 points per game which ranks in the bottom of college football.  Colorado is scoring nearly twice that per game.  As the Rock and Lil Wayne continue their whirlwind tour, this weekend in Tempe, the Sun Devils aren’t ready to host that kind of party with the Buffs looking to get things back on track.  This line is only Colorado minus 4 so I’m jumping on Coach Prime to cover the number.

$40 on Maryland/Ohio State (under 57)

BCole is onto something (see below).  One game stood out to her this weekend.  She felt there was no way Ohio State would cover the 20-point spread against Maryland.  While I wasn’t crazy about the suggestion, I looked up a few statistics along the way.  After I pointed out that the Buckeyes had only allowed 14, 10, 7 and 3 points all season, she retorted that Maryland wasn’t all that bad defensively either.  Of course, they haven’t had to play a team as loaded offensively as the Buckeyes but that doesn’t change the fact that the Bucks aren’t letting people into the end zone.  When I looked up the over/under, I saw 57, which is only 8 points under the Utah State/Colorado State game (see below again) where both teams should be running up and down the field.  While I can see Ohio State doing that to Maryland, I can’t see the Terps doing that in return.  I’m laying off the point spread but feel pretty good that this game won’t see a total of 57 points scored in it.  Give me this game to go under the number.

$30 on Colorado State/Utah State (over 65)

38, 106, 60, 83, 67.  Those are the combined total scores for the five games Utah State has played in this year.  74, 78, 54, 61.  Those are the combined total scores for the four games Colorado State has played this season.  Both these teams average over 33 points a game scoring.  Both these teams allow over 33 points a game defensively.  In other words, if you’re attending this game, you may want to strategically plan your pee breaks.  This over/under is 65 which is high but not absurdly so.  There are higher numbers out there this weekend.  Like most of America, the only football I’ve watched from either of these teams this season (or ever) are the three and a half hours of fame Colorado State received by playing Coach Prime’s Buffalos.  And if you don’t believe Prime is drawing attention, I’m betting on both him and his instate rival this week, so what’s that tell you?  65 is daring you to go over and these two teams are giving you every reason to believe that’s possible.  Give me Colorado State/Utah State to go over the number.

$20 on Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-10)

I can’t believe I’m going to do this.  I don’t remember the last time the Detroit Lions were double-digit favorites over anyone, but I think there’s value here.  If you don’t see the Detroit Lions as one of the best teams in the NFC, you’re not watching their brand of football.  Sure, they’re not on the level of San Francisco, Philadelphia, and Dallas (maybe) but they’re not all that far behind.  Their young defense is fourth in the league in yards allowed and they are nearly impossible to run against.  This means Carolina will look to a young Bryce Young to air it out to his mediocre receiving corps.  While Detroit’s offense is still struggling with a consistent attack, their dominant defense gives them plenty of opportunities to figure things out.  Carolina’s defense is no slouch, but they’ll eventually crack.  Detroit minus ten.

$10 on Kentucky Wildcats (+14) at Georgia Bulldogs

Alright, I’ll bite.  We know who Georgia is.  We know what they’ve done.  They’re your back-to-back defending national champions and while they haven’t exactly looked as dominant as they have the last two years, they’re still the number one team in the nation, at least according to the rankings.  They are still dominant defensively, allowing only 13 points per game.  Not to be overlooked is that other 5-0 team in the SEC East who just handed Florida an embarrassing historical loss.  While the Wildcats ran the ball all over the field, it should not be overlooked that Kentucky is similarly only allowing 15 points per game.  This is Kentucky’s biggest game in years.  The school has NEVER won the SEC East.  They last won the SEC outright… in 1950.  No one is crowning Kentucky quite yet as the SEC West is, as usual, an altogether different animal but with a win in Athens, at night, on Saturday, Mark Stoops will have done the unthinkable, and that’s put his Kentucky Wildcat football program in the driver’s seat to represent the SEC East in their conference championship game. Georgia has won thirteen straight in this rivalry with the margins of victory slowly getting smaller.  Okay, okay, we can step out of our fairy tale.  I’m not suggesting Kentucky wins but they are good and know what’s at stake.  They’ll be prepared.  Plus, I love the hook here.  I’m getting fourteen and the half point so I will take Kentucky and cross my fingers for chaos.

 

Last Week’s Recap

  • $50: Kansas City Chiefs (-9) at New York Jets – INCORRECT
  • $40: Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-9) – INCORRECT
  • $30: Michigan State Spartans at Iowa Hawkeyes (-12.5) – INCORRECT
  • $20: Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-5.5) at Duke Blue Devils – CORRECT
  • $10: New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5) – CORRECT

Season Stats for Kevin Paul and The Wife Hates Sports

  • NFL: 8-5 ($60)
  • College: 4-3 ($60)
  • Overall: 12-8 ($120)

 

Chime in with your top picks for the week.  Also, if you have interest in being a guest picker, let us know via the comments below. Thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!

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