While THE WIFE sighs at the thought of football taking over the TV for the majority of weekends to come, football lovers rejoice at the triumphant return of the NFL. So let’s celebrate with some healthy debate and a Vegas twist. As I have done in the past, my 2023 NFL Season Predictions will focus on the NFL Over/Under win totals for the upcoming season.
The SportsChump – a longtime friend, writer, bartender, and likely owner of creamsicle-colored Bucs gear – is back with his 13th Annual Over/Under Contest (THIRTEEN, REALLY?), challenging his readers to predict the upcoming regular season win totals of NFL teams, specifically extracting a top ten and assigning confidence points to each.
Yours truly is a two-time winner that hopes to complete the hat trick in 2023.
Before making some pigskin prognostication, let’s first provide the full list of NFL Over/Under win totals, per Vegas. Feel free to comment with your favorite picks or head on over to the Chump’s site via the link above and make some predictions of your own. It’s free and he’s giving out prizes to the winner.
Team – 2023 O/U
- Cincinnati Bengals – 11.5
- Kansas City Chiefs – 11.5
- Philadelphia Eagles – 11.5
- Baltimore Ravens – 10.5
- Buffalo Bills – 10.5
- San Francisco 49ers – 10.5
- Cleveland Browns – 9.5
- Dallas Cowboys – 9.5
- Detroit Lions – 9.5
- Jacksonville Jaguars – 9.5
- Los Angeles Chargers – 9.5
- Miami Dolphins – 9.5
- New Orleans Saints – 9.5
- New York Jets – 9.5
- Atlanta Falcons – 8.5
- Denver Broncos – 8.5
- Minnesota Vikings – 8.5
- Pittsburgh Steelers – 8.5
- Seattle Seahawks – 8.5
- New England Patriots – 7.5
- New York Giants – 7.5
- Carolina Panthers – 7.5
- Chicago Bears – 7.5
- Green Bay Packers – 7.5
- Tennessee Titans – 7.5
- Houston Texans – 6.5
- Indianapolis Colts – 6.5
- Las Vegas Raiders – 6.5
- Los Angeles Rams – 6.5
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 6.5
- Washington Football Team – 6.5
- Arizona Cardinals – 4.5
In order by confidence, here are my top ten picks for the 2023 NFL season:
2023 NFL Season Predictions: Team Over/Under Win Total Best Bets
10. Minnesota Vikings – (8.5 wins – OVER)
As I write this, I feel a bit crazy for screaming “You like that?” in my head – especially when it considers Kirk Cousins and the wildly inconsistent Vikings. But let’s think about this for a minute. Sure, Dalvin Cook is off to New York, but Alexander Mattison has often been considered the best backup RB in the NFL. Justin Jefferson is considered by many to be the top WR in the game, and a player that could threaten 2,000 receiving yards this season. Add in a Packers team that no longer has Aaron Rodgers. Also, do we think the Lions can retain the momentum from last year? What about the Bears? Will Justin Fields get more support in 2023? A winning season for the Vikings seems like a really good bet.
KP’s Prediction: 10-7 and a division title (via tiebreaker)
9. Buffalo Bills – (10.5 wins – OVER)
There are actually prognosticators out there calling for the Bills to miss the playoffs. What am I missing? The roster is still deep and strong on both sides of the ball. Josh Allen still has Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs to throw to, among others. The only thing that worries me about this pick is the fact that I chose to pick Allen in the second round of my Fantasy Football draft. It’s not usually my style to take quarterbacks that high. Seriously, despite the Jets loading up with new talent (and Aaron Rodgers), I like the Bills to make a run at the AFC Championship this year.
KP’s Prediction: 12-5 and a trip to the AFC Championship
8. Tennessee Titans – (7.5 wins – OVER)
I’m curious about the balance of talent on both sides of the ball, but the Titans will benefit from a division that doesn’t feature a full slate of strong rosters. This division is always a battle to the final weeks of the season. While Ryan Tannehill isn’t a superstar, he is steady, especially if he has enough healthy weapons to assist offensively. The Titans have two monster weapons. Despite being aging veterans, we should still trust the abilities of RB Derrick Henry and WR DeAndre Hopkins. Assuming each is healthy, that should be enough to push the Titans to the .500 mark – and potentially in the mix for another division title.
KP’s Prediction: 9-8 and a playoff spot
7. New York Jets – (9.5 wins – OVER)
OK, I’ll bite. These are the stories that tend to implode. It’s apples (not Big Apples) to oranges, but one can’t help but think of the 2023 New York Mets. Spend the money and bring in the big names, only to never even sniff the playoff picture. Still, this is football – and there’s just something about Aaron Rodgers. He’s a grudge holding guy. The relationship was rocky in Green Bay for years, and now the grass is greener than… well, the Jets jerseys, I guess. Following him are a number of weapons, including Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, and Dalvin Cook. That’s not including the existing weapons the Jets already had. This division should be the most interesting in the NFL this year, and I think the Jets will hold their own.
KP’s Prediction: 11-6 and another playoff run for Rodgers
6. Washington Commanders – (6.5 wins – OVER)
Consider me one of the early enrollees to the Sam Howell Fan Club. There’s just something about this guy – and not just his arm or his speed, but the moxie and leadership that he possesses. The way he led Washington to a dominating win over the Cowboys last season was really something. That was a meaningless game for the Commanders and an important one for Dallas. Add in new OC Eric Bieniemy and there will be a new fire and identity to this offense. Washington has plenty of weapons offensively and a nasty defensive line that has the ability to take over a game in the trenches. With new ownership firing up a formerly listless fanbase, I think the Commanders will surprise some people this year.
KP’s Prediction: 9-8 and most importantly, a rejuvenated fanbase
5. San Francisco 49ers – (10.5 wins – OVER)
The 49ers recently inked Nick Bosa to a massive extension, solidifying a key piece of its defense that also features Arik Armstead, Fred Warner, and many others. The San Francisco offense remains run-heavy and explosive, opening with Christian McCaffrey. This is a team that if healthy, can dominate time of possession and the trenches. The Niners are a clear Super Bowl contender and it seems like a no-brainer to predict a minimum of 11 wins this season.
KP’s Prediction: 12-5 and another deep playoff run
4. Los Angeles Chargers – (9.5 wins – OVER)
The Chargers find a way to not get it done every year – yet, I keep coming back. I’m sorry, but I look at an offense that features Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams – it’s hard not to get excited. Add in a defense that features Khalil Mack, Joey Bosa, and Derwin James – and well, you get the idea. Obviously, the depth of the roster doesn’t stop there. Sure, Sean Payton joins the division in Denver, and the Chiefs are still very much present. I have a great appreciation for this Chargers team, and feel that a strong winning season and another playoff berth is a strong bet.
KP’s Prediction: 10-7 and a Wild Card berth
3. Carolina Panthers – (7.5 wins – UNDER)
Top pick Bryce Young has been given the keys to the offense in a division that features a lot of uncertainty. The Panthers have a lot of youthful talent on defense, as well – including Brian Burns and Derrick Brown. This is one of those situations where the rich and engaged owner (David Tepper) adds the money, brings in the staff, and makes the flashy veteran acquisitions, such as DJ Chark, Miles Sanders, and Adam Thielen. The question remains whether this new group will be able to gel. There’s enough talent to win the division, but can the rookie QB lead them there? I’m banking on that not being the case – and no, that pun was not intended.
KP’s Prediction: 7-10 and plenty of steps in the right direction
2. Houston Texans – (6.5 wins – UNDER)
Finally, the Texans seem to be headed in the right direction. Fiery new coach – check! Potential future stars on offense and defense in C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson, Jr. – check! Division with no clear frontrunner – check! After that, there’s the growing pains when it comes to being a young team in the NFL. Also, let’s add in a WR group that features Nico Collins, Robert Woods, and Noah Brown. Talented, sure – but no guarantees. This feels like a franchise that is headed in the right direction, but is going to need a few more years (and a few more good picks) to get there.
KP’s Prediction: 5-12 and a need for more weapons
1. Green Bay Packers – (7.5 wins – OVER)
It’s not just a death and taxes certainty, but more so that plus excessive amounts of cheese, Old Style beer, and the Packers making this list on a yearly basis type of thing. With no Aaron Rodgers and a lot of uncertainty in Titletown, the unknowns bleed into this selection – hence, having it at the bottom of my top ten. Yet, still there. Green Bay seems to be sold on Jordan Love. I love the veteran talent of the Packers in the trenches and the potential with the offense, too. Considering the division and the home field advantage that Lambeau creates, a near .500 record seems like an intriguing bet to me.
KP’s Prediction: 8-9 and some hope for the future
Agree to disagree? Who are your picks and why? Sound off in the comments below!
As always, thank you for visiting The Wife Hates Sports!
References: OurLads Depth Charts