NFL Week 9 Picks: KP and SportsChump vs. The Wife and a Coin Flip

Heading into our list of NFL Week 9 Picks, it’s about time to cue The Shirelles:

Mama said there’ll be days like this

There’ll be days like this mama said

(Mama said, mama said)

Mama said there’ll be days like this

There’ll be days like this mama said

(Mama said, mama said)

After going 5-10 in Week 8, it was a rough week… a real ugly one.

This usually happens to me once or twice a year when picking NFL spreads.

Hopefully this is my one time.

Not much else to say, other than to pass along props to Lisa Horne, the Sports Chump and that oh-so-sneaky coin flip, all of with winning records last week.

Here’s the quick recap: 

Week 8 Results:

KP (The Wife Hates Sports) – 5-10

Coin Flip – 9-6

Special Guest (Lisa Horne) – 8-7

Sports Chump – 10-5

The WIFE (that HATES sports) – 7-8

On to our NFL Week 9 Picks, featuring a hefty slate of interesting games, including Broncos-Patriots, Ravens-Steelers, Colts-Giants and Cardinals-Cowboys.

In the “Pick Your Knows” department, the WIFE is just two games back – yes, the WIFE.

2014 NFL Season Standings (Against the Spread)

• A push is counted as a tie in the standings
• Slight variation in spreads due to time and site used for picks

Peyton Manning and the Broncos roll into New England this weekend

It’s once again time to “Pick Your Knows” – the only time it’s not a disgusting habit – and here are  our NFL Week 9 Picks (with spreads as they appeared through CBS Sports on 10/29/14).

KP’s Week 8 Recap (Season Total):

Against the Spread: 5-10 (65-56, 54%)

Straight Up: 10-5 (75-46, 62%)

KP’s “Pick Your Knows”: 2014 NFL Week 9 Picks

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+1.5)

The Saints are the only team in the NFL to be undefeated at home and winless on the road.  For last Thursday’s game, I presented a random stat such as that, and it blew up in my face.  Not falling for that again.  Besides, since Week 3, the Panthers have allowed 30 or more points on four different occasions (Steelers, Ravens, Bengals and Packers).  New Orleans owns the league’s second best passing offense (312.3 ypg), and appears to be a team coming out of an early season slump.  If last week’s win over the Packers is any indication, look for Drew Brees and the Saints to outlast Cam Newton and the Panthers, giving New Orleans its first road win.

Against the Spread: New Orleans Saints

Straight Up: New Orleans Saints

NFL Week 9 Picks Update: Saints get first road win, 28-10 (Posted to SportsChump on Thursday)

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-11.5)

The Bengals scratched and clawed its way to a home victory over the Ravens last week, while the Jags regressed back to its losing ways, dropping one to the Dolphins.  Cincinnati might get A.J. Green back, but will be without Giovani Bernard (hip/clavicle) and LB Vontaze Burfict (knee).  Jacksonville’s only non-double-digit road loss was at the Titans in Week 6.  Still, I like Jacksonville’s pass rush (2nd – 25 sacks), and even though the Jags have allowed the most sacks in the NFL, Cincinnati has managed only 11 in 7 games.  With Cincy’s key injuries, I’m taking the Jags and the points, considering the line.

Against the Spread: Jacksonville Jaguars

Straight Up: Cincinnati Bengals

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns (-6.5)

The Browns face off against its third straight sub-par opponent, and get the Bucs at home, all after Tampa Bay lost a heartbreaker in overtime to the Vikings last week.  Jordan Cameron is out for the Browns, leaving one offensive weapon off the field for the Browns.  The Bucs have just 10 sacks in 7 games, likely leaving time for Brian Hoyer to distribute the football.  Tampa Bay has been blown out multiple times, but each of those losses were against teams with more offensive weapons than the Browns have.  For that reason, expect the Bucs to keep this close.  Take Tampa Bay and the points.

Against the Spread: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Straight Up: Cleveland Browns

Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)

Colt McCoy led the Redskins to a surprising overtime victory against the Cowboys, and this week, Robert Griffin III is returning from injury, and will start.  It is unclear just how recovered RGIII is from a dislocated ankle, and therefore, how mobile he will be on the field.  As a pocket passer, Griffin has been quite underwhelming, and is likely to be rusty, too.  The Redskins are coming off an emotional Monday night win, and will be playing on short rest.  With that win in hand, many will expect to build off that momentum.  I expect a setback, falling victim to Jerick McKinnon and Teddy Bridgewater, who will prove to each be more explosive than RGIII.  That and Minnesota’s pass rush, with the league’s second most sacks (25), should force RGIII mistakes, too.  Vikes cover.

Against the Spread: Minnesota Vikings

Straight Up: Minnesota Vikings

Philadelphia Eagles at Houston Texans (+2.5)

The Eagles narrowly missed a last second victory over the Cardinals, while the Texans were able to take care of the Titans on the road.  Arian Foster has been the leading rusher in 6 of Houston’s 8 games, and the Texans are only as successful as its fifth-ranked rushing offense will take them.  That, along with J.J. Watt and the Houston pass rush.  The Eagles have a high-flying offense that could force Houston to throw more, and the Eagles have also allowed the fewest sacks in the NFL, with just seven through seven games.  For these reasons, I like the Eagles to cover on the road.

Against the Spread: Philadelphia Eagles

Straight Up: Philadelphia Eagles

New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)

Michael Vick will get the start for the Jets, but this isn’t the same quarterback.  The Jets couldn’t play as sloppily as last week, could they?  Perhaps not.  The real key here is New York’s run defense, which is actually pretty solid, ranking 5th in the NFL, allowing 3 TD’s on the ground and 85.4 ypg.  It will need to come up big against Kansas City’s run game, which is ranked 3rd in the NFL and has 10 rushing TD’s, tied for the most in football.  This battle in the trenches should eat up plenty of clock, leading to a lower scoring game.  The Jets are a mess, but should be able to keep this one under ten points.

Against the Spread: New York Jets

Straight Up: Kansas City Chiefs

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5)

Arizona fended off a late Philly rally for a huge win in the desert, while Dallas was upset by the Redskins at home in overtime.  Tony Romo enters the game as a major question mark, due to ongoing complications with his back – and following last week’s hit that took him out of the game for significant time.  This would leave the Cowboys relying on Brandon Weeden, which could lead to Arizona further focusing on DeMarco Murray and the run game.  Either way, the Cardinals have been steady and balanced on offense, with Carson Palmer, Andre Ellington, Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd all contributing.  With Romo not 100% (or not even playing), I like Arizona to win.

Against the Spread: Arizona Cardinals

Straight Up: Arizona Cardinals

San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins (-1.5)

The Chargers have had a few extra days to rest and prepare for Miami, following a loss to the Broncos last Thursday.  The Dolphins are third in pass defense and sixth in rushing offense, a tough combination for opponents to contend with.  New England, Chicago and Green Bay are the three strong passing offenses that Miami has faced, and San Diego’s pass game will be similar.  But the Chargers are used to the warmer weather, and have had the extra rest.  In a tossup, I like San Diego.

Against the Spread: San Diego Chargers

Straight Up: San Diego Chargers

St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5)

The Niners had a week off to rest and prepare for the game – a divisional matchup between two teams that faced off just a few short weeks ago, with San Francisco winning 31-17.  The Niners have the home field advantage, while the Rams have struggled to sustain a consistent pass rush.  Add in the extra rest and prep time, and I like the 49ers to cover at home. 

Against the Spread: San Francisco 49ers

Straight Up: San Francisco 49ers

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (+3.5)

Manning vs. Brady XV… enough said.  In the game of the week, both future Hall of Fame QB’s are red hot.  Peyton has had a few extra days to prepare for this year’s Patriots, which is a scary thought for any opponent.  This is one of those “sit back and enjoy the ride” games.  The one stat that stands out the most is New England’s second-ranked pass defense, allowing 210.9 ypg, while having 8 INT’s.  Part of that is inflated due to teams faced, but it’s still a solid unit.  With the home field advantage and a red hot Tom Brady, New England should keep this one close, or even win.  In the end, I like Peyton Manning with a few extra days to prepare, but the Pats keep it at a field goal.

Against the Spread: New England Patriots

Straight Up: Denver Broncos

Oakland Raiders at Seattle Seahawks (-14.5)

A month ago, this would be a no-brainer, but the Seahawks have really struggled offensively in recent weeks.  Even with the 12^th man present, it is difficult to take Seattle to cover with confidence, when the line is more than two touchdowns.  Still, that’s an awfully loud crowd for a rookie QB to have to deal with.  That, plus Oakland has next to no pass rush (29^th in sacks, with 7), leaving Russell Wilson plenty of time to throw.  Opposing quarterbacks are also posting a 107.5 QB rating on the Oakland defense.  Translation: The Raiders might be just what the doctor ordered in Seattle.  Seahawks wake up, crush the Raiders and cover at home.

Against the Spread: Seattle Seahawks

Straight Up: Seattle Seahawks

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5)

Pittsburgh has new life in recent weeks, most notably last week, when Big Ben and the Steelers’ offense posted gaudy numbers against the Colts, while sporting those crazy bumblebee-like unis.  When facing bitter rival Baltimore, these games are always jam-packed with brawls and big hits, but normally absent of high scores and touchdowns.  The Ravens won the first match 26-6, back in Week 2, but it’s tough to pick against a Steelers team that has scored 81 points over the last two weeks.  The home team has also won the last three times in this rivalry.  I’ll take the Steelers in a close one.

Against the Spread: Pittsburgh Steelers

Straight Up: Pittsburgh Steelers

Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants (+3.5)

The Giants are coming off a bye week, and will host an Indianapolis team that was torched by Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers last week.  The Colts own the league’s top passing offense and will be a big challenge for New York’s passing defense, which while ranked 25th in passing yards allowed, has managed 11 INT’s on the year.  While Odell Beckham will continue to grow in his role, the Giants will still miss Victor Cruz (out for the year).  Rashad Jennings also will not play, and therefore, even with the extra prep time, I like Indy’s potent passing offense to cover on the road. 

Against the Spread: Indianapolis Colts

Straight Up: Indianapolis Colts

Bye Week: Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers and Tennessee Titans

THE WIFE

She HATES sports, but will pick teams in hopes of leading to your embarrassment.  No blurb, just her NFL Week 9 Picks.  Heck, we’re lucky to get that much.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+1.5) – Saints

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-11.5) – Jaguars

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns (-6.5) – Browns

Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) – Redskins

Philadelphia Eagles at Houston Texans (+2.5) – Texans

New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) – Chiefs

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) – Cowboys

San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins (-1.5) – Dolphins

St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) – Rams

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (+3.5) – Broncos

Oakland Raiders at Seattle Seahawks (-14.5) – Seahawks

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) – Ravens

Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants (+3.5) – Colts

COIN FLIP

This quarter refuses to be referred to as “Chump change”… see what I did there?  Oh, and by the way, HEADS equals the HOME team, and TAILS is a vote for the AWAY team.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+1.5) – Panthers

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-11.5) – Jaguars

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns (-6.5) – Buccaneers

Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) – Vikings

Philadelphia Eagles at Houston Texans (+2.5) – Eagles

New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) – Jets

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) – Cowboys

San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins (-1.5) – Dolphins

St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) – Rams

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (+3.5) – Broncos

Oakland Raiders at Seattle Seahawks (-14.5) – Seahawks

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) – Steelers

Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants (+3.5) – Colts

SPORTSCHUMP’S Picks

Here are a few of the Chump’s NFL Week 9 Picks for the week.  For the rest, visit Sports Chump!

WASHINGTON +2 at MINNESOTA

The good news coming from the nation’s capital is that we’ll soon usher in a new president.  And his name is Colt McCoy.  Seriously though.  If I had told you two weeks ago that Colt McCoy would be starting for (that team from) Washington and have led them to two wins with one of those wins being in Dallas on Monday night, you’d have stopped reading this site altogether.  

Wait, you are still reading, aren’t you?  I can’t believe I’m saying this but…. Colt McCoy has actually looked good.  Apparently someone’s been doing their homework on the sidelines.  Of course none of that matters now because RGIII will start this game.  It’s okay though, Colt.  The ‘Skins will release you and some other team will sign you to a huge contract a la Matt Cassell.  Regardless of who starts behind center, Minnesota stinky-poo.  I’ll take (that team from) Washington and their never-ending carousel of quarterbacks.

PHILADELPHIA -2 at HOUSTON

Tough game to pick here.  I can make a valid argument for both of these teams winning or losing this game.  All I have to do now is convince myself which one of those two potential outcomes is more likely to happen.  I said last week that Darren Sproles would be back for Philly.  I was wrong.  I’m saying he’s going to be back this week.  Hopefully I’ll be right.  Philadelphia is the better team here but Houston is the hotter team.  After all, they’ve won one straight and that’s quite a feat for the Texans.  I’m not crazy about this pick and my only logic in choosing Houston here is that they have to win this game if they want any shot at the post-season.  A loss drops them to 4-5.  In an act of desperation, I’ll take the Texans and the deuce.

NY JETS at KANSAS CITY -9.5

We’re all sitting around and waiting for the Jets to cover in one of these games but waiting for Rex Ryan to receive his walking papers is far more appropriate.  Even Coach Ryan himself has to be surprised when he shows up to his office Monday morning not to find his name stenciled off the front door.  After he tossed three picks early in the game last week, the Jets pulled Geno Smith and inserted Michael Vick who didn’t fare that much better.  This week, Vick will get the starting nod against a Chiefs team which is far superior in every facet of the game. 

The Jets got absolutely embarrassed (lather, rinse, repeat) at home last week against the Bills.  This team is either no good or has given up entirely, neither of which is a good sign.  Michael Vick even admitted to not being physically or mentally prepared to play earlier this season.  That sounds like the rest of the players in that locker room.  These guys are aware this is the NFL and that they are professional football players, right?  I’ll take the Chiefs to cover as the Jets continue to go down in flames.

DENVER -3 at NEW ENGLAND

Let me be the first you hear say this match-up is NOT about Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.  Sure these are among the two best quarterbacks we’re ever seen.  And sure the NFL intentionally schedules these two to square off against each other annually in a shameful ratings grab.  (Who are we kidding?  We love it!)  Yes, Tom Brady-led teams are 9-5 against Peyton Manning-led teams.  But these Broncos are far better than these Patriots.  If you take the Pats here, you’re forgetting that this Broncos team will probably be in the Super Bowl this year and that the Pats are decimated with injuries.  Give me Peyton to cover all day.

Special Guest: Ronbets

This week’s special guest is Ronbets, a friend of the Chump.  Here are a few of his NFL Week 9 Picks.  For the rest, check out the Chump!

AZ +3.5 – Hear Romo really hurting. Short week ain’t helping.

SFO -10 – Bye week means CYA Rams

NENG +3.5 – Brady edge over PM. Belichick will out-FOX.

OAK +15.5 – SEA has internal issues. OAK should backdoor the cover.

BALT +1 – Don’t be too influenced by those Arena #s put up by BBen.