PGA DFS 2024 Cognizant Classic Sleepers: Longshots and Bargains

For those closely following the twists and turns on the PGA TOUR, you will know that some major sponsors bailed due to increased costs of being the main sponsor of an event. This week is one example. The Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches is the artist formerly known as the Honda Classic. That’s one major change. The tournament remains at PGA National, a challenging venue that has seen winners land with a final score between 6-under and 14-under over the last decade or so. That’s the first point to make when it comes to uncovering my PGA DFS 2024 Cognizant Classic Sleepers this week.

Obviously the term “SLEEPER” can be interpreted in a number of different ways. In this case, it’s the lower cost players that stand out in key statistical areas, specifically $7,300 or less on DraftKings or a longshot of +10000 or greater on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Before I present this week’s picks, a few notes on PGA National:

Weather and wind can be a factor, but while there may be some wind, rain is only expected Sunday
SG: Approach and SG: Putting are nearly twice as important as SG: OTT and SG: ARG
GIR Gained is a key stat when it comes to top finishers, per Fantasy National
SG: Total (Difficult venues) has been a key stat, considering final results on this course
The 10th hole has been lengthened approximately 30 yards and made a Par 5

I ran multiple models on Fantasy National featuring my top statistical categories for the event. Based off that data, here are my favorite sleepers on DraftKings, accompanied by their current odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

PGA DFS 2024 Cognizant Classic Sleepers: Bargains on DraftKings

Davis Thompson (DK: $6,800, WINNER +8000, Top 5 +1600, Top 10 +700)

Thompson has no experience at PGA National, but he is steady and strong in a lot of key statistical categories. He ranks 22nd in the field in SG: Approach (last 24 rounds via Fantasy National), 25th in SG: Total, 33rd in SG: Putting, 16th in SG: Putting (Bermuda), 18th in SG: Par 4 Gained, and 33rd in GIR Gained. Over the last six tournaments, Thompson has participated in four of them, with three made cuts that are all Top 25 finishes or better. Overall, he’s been a steady performer and could be a dark horse.

Billy Horschel (DK: $7,000, WINNER +10000, Top 5 +1800, Top 10 +850)

The fiery “Billy Ho” can always show up when you least expect it. What’s concerning is his rank in the field on difficult courses (118th over the last 24 rounds). But like Montgomery, his putting is very much there – 6th in SG: Putting over the last 24 rounds played and 5th on Bermuda greens. He’s 12th in the field in total strokes gained (last 24 rounds). Although that number may be skewed considering a gap in tournaments and a few missed cuts. But at this tournament, he’s played in four of the last five years, making the cut each time (and finishing T16 twice). He’s a high risk, high reward play.

Taylor Montgomery (DK: $7,000, WINNER +10000, Top 5 +2000, Top 10 +900)

It hasn’t been an amazing run of late, but Thompson made nine straight cuts prior to missing at the Genesis a few weeks ago. He’s never played at PGA National, so that’s something new (and to consider). However, putting and approach are very important here. Over his last 24 rounds played (via Fantasy National), Montgomery is a respectable 38th in the field in SG: Approach. Putting is much better. He’s second in the field in SG: Putting and 7th in SG: Putting on Bermuda greens. Overall, at this DK price point and odds, he’s an intriguing play to consider.

Brandon Wu (DK: $6,600, WINNER +10000, Top 5 +1800, Top 10 +850)

Wu ranks 18th in the field in SG: Approach (last 24 rounds, via Fantasy National), and that’s arguably the most important category for this tournament. He also ranks 23rd in GIR Gained, which is a key stat at Fantasy National, from cut makers all the way up to winners. His 13th place finish at the Mexico Open last week is a positive sign for where he is trending. He also finished T14 last year at this tournament (a positive sign considering two previous missed cuts). Overall, he’s on the right track to success.

Chesson Hadley (DK: $6,700, WINNER +11000, Top 5 +2000, Top 10 +900)

Hadley may be the biggest wild card of the bunch. But he ranked highest in the model that I ran (by last 24 rounds). He’s played at PGA National in four of the last five years, with two made cuts (and a T29 finish last year). He was T24 at the Mexico Open last week. Hadley is very strong on Bermuda greens and ranks 2nd in the field for the last 24 rounds. Overall, he’s 19th in SG: Putting, 10th in SG: Approach, 15th in GIR Gained, and 16th in SG: Par 4. His missed cut at the Phoenix Open a few weeks back was the only blemish in eleven tournaments where he made the cut the other ten times. He has been a steady presence statistically and as a result, is an interesting option with this DK price tag (and odds).