Originally posted to KP’s Blog (via Fox Sports) on April 20, 2009

Popular game. Annoying game. It’s a game where you are forced to provide all the answers. Yes, my friends, it’s 20 questions… only this time, the answer is “The NFL Draft”.

And here are the questions that should lead up to this weekend’s answer…

20 Questions… NFL Draft Style

1 – Who will the Lions take with the number one pick?
All signs are pointing in the direction of Matthew Stafford, but this draft is likely going to surprise, and that shock could spark at the very top in Detroit.

2 – Which quarterback will be better in the NFL, Matthew Stafford or Mark Sanchez?
Or better yet, maybe Josh Freeman, or a diamond in the rough near the draft’s final rounds…

3 – What will the New York Jets do about their quarterback situation?
Will a Sanchez or Stafford fall, or will the Jets trade up, or avoid a QB entirely in the early going?

4 – Will the Denver Broncos add a quarterback, or stick with Kyle Orton and Chris Simms?
Personally, if I’m the Broncos, I stick with these two for now, and instead focus on improving the team’s defense, which struggled last year.

5 – Will Braylon Edwards get traded to the Giants?
It’s been a popular rumor, where Edwards could get dealt to the Giants to replace Plaxico Burress. The real question is, can Edwards cure that case of the “dropsies”?

6 – Will the Redskins make a move to draft Mark Sanchez, and if so, what happens with Jason Campbell in DC?
One thing is for certain… Campbell has handled the trade rumors a lot better than Jay Cutler did.

7 – Will the Eagles gun for a playmaker to make McNabb happy, a.k.a. a deal for Anquan Boldin?
Boldin is on the market and a lot of teams are interested in him, for good reason. If I’m the Eagles, I go for it, giving Donovan that weapon he’s needed since “you know who” left.

8 – What will the negative news surrounding B.J. Raji and Andre Smith do for each player’s draft stock?
There was a rumor on Raji failing a drug test, which has been mentioned as being false. Then there’s Smith, whose story started while reporting to the Combine out of shape, and not working out at it. How will each story affect each player’s draft stock?

9 – How much will Michael Crabtree’s injury affect where he is selected in the draft?
Some have compared him to Andre Johnson of the Texans. Either way, Crabtree is a “can’t miss” talent, and I still expect him to get taken in the top five.

10 – Will all three of USC’s starting linebackers from last year be selected in the first round?
It’s unheard of to see an entire unit get taken in the first round of the draft, but it could happen with last year’s USC starting linebacker trio of Rey Maualuga, Clay Matthews, and Brian Cushing.

11 – When drafted, where will Brian Orakpo and Aaron Maybin play, defensive end or outside linebacker?
Orakpo is freakishly strong while Maybin is considered super quick but slightly undersized, but the question remains, which system will each fall into and how will they perform once there?

12 – How soon will the slasher types like Penn State’s Derrick Williams and West Virginia’s Pat White go, and how will each fit with his respective team?
Both are former quarterbacks (Williams in high school) that can run, throw, return kicks… whatever is needed. Perhaps one would fit well in a wildcat-like system.

13 – Will draft prospect Demetrius Byrd be OK after being in a serious auto accident?
The former LSU receiver was considered one of the top twenty receivers on the draft board, and hopefully the young man will make a full recovery. Get well soon Demetrius.

14 – Which running back will go first, Knowshon Moreno or Chris Wells?
One mock draft has “Beanie” Wells going to the Saints. Can you imagine a duo of Wells and Bush in the New Orleans backfield? Nasty… that is, if each were able to stay healthy.

15 – What kind of impact will the second tier of running backs have?
There are only a few projected first rounders, but what about some of the second tier players such as Donald Brown (Connecticut) and Shonn Greene (Iowa)? Each could have very productive NFL careers.

16 – Is Wake’s Aaron Curry really the safest bet in this draft?
This draft seems as up in the air as any in recent memory, but the common thought is that Curry is the draft’s safest bet. The question remains, will he be when we look back on this draft ten years from now?

17 – Who will be the biggest steal of this year’s draft?
There’s one every year, and the biggest steal in my mind from last year was Washington safety Chris Horton, who was selected in the seventh round (249th pick), and had 76 tackles his rookie season.

18 – How many wide receivers will be selected in the first round?
This year’s receiver group is chock full of talent, while last year, not one WR was taken in the first round. Crabtree is the unanimous top gun, but who else will go in the first? A few likely options include Jeremy Maclin, Hakeem Nicks, Percy Harvin, Kenny Britt, and Darrius Heyward-Bey.

19 – What surprise deals will come from out of nowhere on draft day?
It happens every year. Trades from out of nowhere. Trading up, trading down, trading for veterans. There’s always one shocker, do you have an off-the-wall prediction for one?

And finally…

20 – What off-color occurrence will we be presented with during the draft?
C’mon you know the drill. That one player sporting the extra vibrant duds, or maybe another situation like the Vikings, who six years ago missed making their pick because time expired. What will we see this year, if anything?

Don’t question it, the answer is the NFL Draft – and it’s the taste of football we crave while waiting for another season to get started…

If there’s something strange in your Midwest Region.
Who you gonna call? BRACKET BUSTERS!

If there’s something weird in Carolina’s hood.
Who you gonna call? BRACKET BUSTERS!

I ain’t afraid of mid-majors
I ain’t afraid of no underdog

If you’re seeing things that kill your bracket dead
Who can you call? BRACKET BUSTERS!

A seven foot man dunking on your head
Oh, who you gonna call? BRACKET BUSTERS!

If your Final Four’s gone, pick up the phone
And call… BRACKET BUSTERS!

I ain’t afraid of Cinderella
I ain’t afraid of buzzer beaters
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah

Who you gonna call? BRACKET BUSTERS!

If you’ve had a dose, and your Champ is toast
You’d better call… BRACKET BUSTERS!

Let me tell you something
Bustin’ makes me feel good

Don’t get caught in one-on-one, oh
When it comes through the paint
Unless you just want free throws
I think you better call…

WHO WE GONNA CALL?

BRACKET BUSTERS!

“Exceed the Seed (Bracket Busters)” – by KP (Spoof of Ray Parker Jr.’s “Ghostbusters”)
By now, many of you have already filled out a bracket, and therefore have your own Cinderellas in place. Let’s compare, shall we? I present you with my list of “Bracket Busters”, including a six pack of teams that I think can “exceed their seed”, potentially resulting in a lot of crumbled brackets in the very near future.

KP’s Bracket Busters for 2009 *

Mississippi State Bulldogs
(#13 – West Region)

There’s a little term out there called momentum, and that’s what the Bulldogs have after winning six straight (including four by nine points or more), plus earning a tournament bid by winning the SEC conference tournament. Forget the little things, what about a big man by the name of Jarvis Varnado? Varnado leads the team in scoring, while adding nine boards a game and rivaling Uconn’s Hasheem Thabeet as the best blocker in the nation. And oh yeah, the Bulldogs are among the country’s best in field goal percentage defense, while also draining an average of eight or more triples a game. In my eyes, it all adds up to a shocking first round upset of the Washington Huskies.

Wisconsin Badgers
(#12 – East Region)

Everyone is high on Florida State, and why not, they’ve had a great year, one that’s been quite a surprise to many. But hear this about FSU: Its a scrappy defensive team that has one star scorer, Toney Douglas, who averages over 21 points a game. Besides Douglas, no one other Seminole player averages in double figures.

Enter the Badgers, a defensive minded team led by head coach Bo Ryan. This is a team with some veteran leadership and March Madness experience. Ignore the six game losing streak earlier in the season. Heck, none of those losses were by double digits, three of them were by three points, and two others went to overtime. All in all, Wisconsin has the defensive ability to shut down Douglas and force others to beat them. And that’s why I have Wisconsin not only upsetting FSU, but also moving on to shock Xavier and make the Sweet 16.

Arizona Wildcats
(#12 – Midwest Region)

Arizona may be the team that every critic says should not have made this year’s dance, but now that the Wildcats are here, all that talk is simply just fuel to motivate the players – a group that includes a few future NBA talents, including Jordan Hill (18.5 PPG and 11 RPG), Chase Budinger (17.9 PPG and 6.3 RPG), and Nic Wise (15.1 PPG and 4.6 APG).

Sure, Utah has some balance, featuring four players who average in double figures, led by giant center Luke Nevill. But there’s just something about being rejuvenated with a madness invite, and even though the Wildcats dropped five of six to end the year, they have enough talent to turn on their game at any time – and that time is now with a 12-5 upset of the Utes.

Virginia Commonwealth Rams
(#11 – East Region)

VCU has been here before, and so has senior Eric Maynor, who hit the game winning shot that sank Duke in the tournament a few seasons ago. Returning to the tournament again, Maynor is among the nation’s highest scorers, averaging 22.4 a game, while also dishing the rock for over six assists per game. The Rams also have Larry Sanders, the talented forward who averages over 11 points and eight boards a game.

Enter UCLA, a team that in recent years lives in the Final Four. But this year, the Bruins have been inconsistent. Sure, Ben Howland still has a talented bunch that plays solid defense, but VCU found a way against a Duke team that always plays sound defense. And that’s why I see another “Maynor Miracle”, putting a dramatic end to UCLA’s impressive tournament streak.

Clemson Tigers
(#7 – South Region)

How is it that this Clemson team can start out at such a blistering pace each year, only to fade down the stretch every single time? The Tigers finished out by losing four of five, dropping their seed down to the seven slot. But this team can play, and blowout victories over tournament teams such as Duke and Maryland prove it. The question is, which Tiger team will show up when the madness begins? The Jekyll or the Hyde? One thing’s for certain, the talented trio of Trevor Booker, K.C. Rivers, and Terrence Oglesby can beat anyone on a given day.

And in the first round, Clemson and Michigan should put up a fireworks display, as both are solid three-point shooting teams. With Oklahoma reeling ever since Blake Griffin left with a concussion, anything is possible. Sure, Griffin is likely the top pick in upcoming draft, but the supporting cast has been iffy in recent weeks, and OU has been losing with Griffin in the lineup, too. Maybe it’s fatigue, who knows, but this isn’t the same Sooners team from weeks ago, and that’s why I have a talented Clemson team catching fire and knocking out the Sooners in the second round.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons
(#4 – Midwest Region)

People should recall that this Wake team was once #1 in the country, and has impressive victories over Duke, Boston College (twice) Clemson (twice), BYU, Florida State, and North Carolina. They loosely remind me of a championship Syracuse team from a few years back, mostly from the perspective that they are a young and talented group that came in slightly under the radar, just below the top tier of teams. With the ‘Cuse, it was Carmelo Anthony, Hakim Warrick, and Gerry McNamara. On this young Wake team, it’s Jeff Teague, James Johnson, and Al-Farouq Aminu.

Do I have the Demon Deacons winning the title? Nope… but I do have them upsetting Louisville to advance to the Elite 8. Don’t think it’s possible? Look at Wake, a team that’s among the best in the nation in rebound margin, a.k.a. second chances. Now look at Louisville, a very talented team, but one who shoots poorly from the line (around 64%), while also having some significant lapses during the season, including a 33-point loss to Notre Dame and a 14-point loss to Western Kentucky. After ten straight wins, they could be due to fall soon, and Wake has the talent to knock them out if they can catch the Cardinals on the right day.

Who are your Cinderellas for 2009?

Don’t forget… if you need ‘em, the Bracket Busters are just a phone call away.

* This is similar to KP’s post of the same title from last season, where he was able (or lucky) to predict over 2/3 of his upsets correctly.

Originally posted to KP’s Blog (via Fox Sports) on March 16, 2009

Looking for a reason to not take a team far in the tournament? You’re not alone there. But hey, if you look hard enough, there are plenty of reasons to shy away from even the biggest powers in college basketball… from injuries, to offensive woes, defensive woes, free throw shooting, and even single points of failure. Take the following examples, which in the end could eventually assist you in throwing the finishing touches on the masterpiece that is your 2009 bracket.

Reasons To Avoid Some of the Higher Seeds in the Tournament *

Free Throw Shooting
Think about it, March Madness is chock full of close games. When down to the wire, it’s often the players with ice in their veins from the charity stripe that win the tight games. Last year, there were teams like Clemson and Memphis with atrocious numbers from the line. For Clemson, it hit them and they were out quick. For Memphis, their talent put them in the title game, but in the end, we all know it was the free throw shooting that cost them a National Title. As for this year, take the following two teams, and how they rank in the country…

(1) Louisville – 64.3% FT – Rank: 298th
(3) Syracuse – 63.9% FT – Rank: 303rd

Offensive Rebounds Per Game
Hey, what’s better than a second chance? Well, besides making due with your first chance, but still, often teams can earn those big victories by getting a high total of second chance points. Let’s look at a few teams that have struggled to get offensive boards this season…

(5) Purdue – 9.4 per game – Rank: 303rd
(8) BYU – 9.2 per game – Rank: 308th
(6) Arizona State – 8.4 per game – Rank: 324th
(8) Ohio State – 8.1 per game – Rank: 328th

Assist Turnover Ratio
More often than not, it’s efficiency and a quality team effort that can vault a team deep into the tournament. Specifically, there’s assist turnover ratio, where a team can dish out the rock frequently, while not turning the ball over. Take the following teams, who have struggled in this category throughout the year…

(4) Washington – 0.88 ATR – Rank: 212th
(4) Wake Forest – 0.83 ATR – Rank: 251st
(5) Florida State – 0.78 ATR – Rank: 278th

Fouls Per Game
Plain and simple, you can’t win a game without your starting lineup on the court. A team needs to have discipline to avoid silly fouls, while also keeping an opponent off the line and away from the double bonus. In particular, these teams have committed a large number of fouls throughout the season…

(8) Oklahoma State – 21.3 per game – Rank: 15th
(3) Missouri – 19.9 per game – Rank: 61st
(4) Washington – 19.5 per game – Rank: 83rd

Three Point Shooting
This one has two parts. First, for the teams that struggle from behind the arc, and therefore when facing a physical opponent, can struggle to keep a team honest by mixing it up from deep. Then there are the teams that live and die by the three, and when an off night arrives, this team is likely doomed for elimination. Take the following examples of each…

Struggles from Behind the Arc
(2) Memphis – 32% – Rank: 261st
(4) Wake Forest – 31.8% – Rank: 266th

Live and Die by the 3
(7) California – 43.4% – Rank: 1st
(4) Xavier – 39.9% – Rank: 13th
(6) UCLA – 39.8% – Rank: 14th
(4) Gonzaga – 39.4% – Rank: 19th

Injuries
It’s tough to gauge the severity of an injury, especially since more often than not, a school will downplay a certain injury to confuse and complicate an opponent’s game plan. Still, in some cases, it’s an injury to a star player that in the end can derail a team that once had high hopes of a National Title entering the tournament. Take the following examples…

(1) North Carolina – Ty Lawson
Rested for a few games in the ACC tournament, it’s said that Lawson should play, but who knows how bad the toe injury will be. One thing’s for certain, the ‘Heels hope that “this little piggy will go to the basket”.

(1) Pittsburgh – Levance Fields
Fields has been nursing groin and back injuries, both of which can linger on and cause problems, but the hope in Pittsburgh is that he’ll be fine.

(1) Connecticut – Jerome Dyson
UConn’s second leading scorer, Dyson’s season ended after being diagnosed with a torn lateral meniscus in his right knee. The Huskies have depth and talent, but Dyson definitely has been missed.

(5) Illinois – Chester Frazier
Likely the feistiest defender for the Illini, Frasier reportedly will be very limited in the opening round game against #12 seed Western Kentucky.

(6) Marquette – Dominic James
This one hurt for the Golden Eagles, as James ran the point, and was one of the team’s better players. Since he went down, Marquette clearly hasn’t been the same team.

Single Points of Failure
And last but not least, there are the teams that have one player that puts up the majority of the scoring on offense. Upon meeting a tough defensive opponent that can shut this player down, it’s often difficult to find others to step up and put points on the board. In particular, the following teams and players come to mind…

(3) Kansas – Sherron Collins – 18.3 PPG
Sure, Cole Aldrich averages a double-double per game, but Collins is the heart and soul of this Jayhawks team.

(5) Florida State – Toney Douglas – 21.3 PPG
Outside of Douglas, no one else on the Florida State roster averages in double figures.

(6) Arizona State – James Harden – 20.8 PPG
Pendergraph does average over 14 a game, but the Sun Devils live and die by Harden.

* Stats courtesy of NCAA website and StatSheet.com