NFL Week 11 Picks: Scott Gabree Joins SportsChump, Wife and the Coin Flip

Let it be a lesson to all of us: the most obvious selections never seem to pan out.  That story should remain the same for our NFL Week 11 Picks, too.

Take the Pittsburgh Steelers, entering last week with one of the hottest quarterbacks in Ben Roethlisberger, and taking on an abysmal Jets pass defense that had given up 24 touchdowns.  It took until the final minutes for the Steelers to get into the end zone, and Rex Ryan walked off the field letting the f-bombs fly, as his team earned its second win of the season.

A very strange season, indeed.

So, which NFL Week 11 Picks game falls into the “Captain Obvious” category?

Broncos-Rams, Raiders-Chargers and Steelers-Titans all come to mind.

Only time will tell, but for now, here’s a quick recap from last week: 

Week 10 Results:

KP (The Wife Hates Sports) – 8-5

Coin Flip – 6-7

Special Guest (Doctor Milhouse) – 9-4

Sports Chump – 6-7

The WIFE (that HATES sports) – 7-6

On to our NFL Week 11 Picks, featuring a hefty slate of intriguing games, including Patriots-Colts, Bengals-Saints, Lions-Cardinals, Eagles-Packers, 49ers-Giants and Seahawks-Chiefs.

In the “Pick Your Knows” department, The Wife Hates Sports (KP) is cruising…

2014 NFL Season Standings (Against the Spread)

• A push is counted as a tie in the standings
• Slight variation in spreads due to time and site used for picks

NFL Week 11 Picks: Indianapolis Colts QB Andrew Luck is an NFL MVP candidate

It’s once again time to “Pick Your Knows” – the only time it’s not a disgusting habit – and here are the NFL Week 11 Picks (with spreads as they appeared through CBS Sports on 11/12/14).

KP’s “Pick Your Knows”: 2014 NFL Week 11 Picks

KP’s Week 10 Recap (Season Total):

Against the Spread: 8-5 (82-65, 56%)

Straight Up: 10-3 (95-52, 65%)

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-5.5)

Both teams are ranked in the top ten in pass defense and each has also managed a double-digit tally of interceptions.  The home team has won four of the last five meetings in this rivalry, and this season, the Dolphins have posted some impressive victories at home, knocking out both the Patriots and Chargers, while nearly beating the Packers.  These two teams have combined for 62 sacks, with the Bills leading the NFL (34) and the Dolphins tied for fourth (28).  Lamar Miller was upgraded to probable, but may not receive a full workload.  Having Miller will still give Miami a boost, but with two solid defenses, this is likely to be lower scoring (and a close game).  Injuries to the Miami O-line are concerning, but I still like the Dolphins to exact revenge from its September loss in Buffalo.  Perhaps the impressive home wins are what keep swaying me.  That and Miami managed against Detroit’s pass rush.  ‘Fins by a field goal (a.k.a. take the Bills and the points).

Against the Spread: Buffalo Bills

Straight Up: Miami Dolphins

NFL Week 11 Picks Update: Dolphins 22, Bills 9 – Miami continues to play well at home

Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints (-7.5)

The Bengals have had a few extra days to rest and prepare, following an embarrassing home loss to the Browns.  New Orleans lost its first home game of the season, and first in a long while, too.  This match-up forces a revisit to when Cincinnati faced New England, and the Gronkowski-Wright tight end combination that torched the Bengals.  That same defense is now without linebacker Vontaze Burfict.  You know where this is headed – right at Jimmy Graham.  Bengals RB Giovani Bernard is also listed as doubtful, and will be missed.  With A.J. Green, however, the Bengals still have plenty of offensive weapons that should cause headaches for a New Orleans defense that is very beatable.  While I like Drew Brees and the Saints at home, take the Bengals and the points.  Saints by a TD.   

Against the Spread: Cincinnati Bengals

Straight Up: New Orleans Saints

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-3.5)

Houston is coming off a bye week and the Browns have had a few extra days rest following its impressive win over the Bengals last Thursday night.  The key here will be Ryan Mallett, who is getting his first start with the Texans.  Translation: We have an inexperienced quarterback facing off against a defense that has more interceptions (13) than touchdowns allowed (12).  Toss into that mix a raucous home crowd and a Cleveland team that is 4-1 at home, with its only loss being a two-point defeat at the hands of the Ravens.  Arian Foster will not play, leaving Alfred Blue to try and bowl through a Cleveland run defense that is ranked 28^th in the NFL.  Don’t bank on it.  Browns cover at home.

Against the Spread: Cleveland Browns

Straight Up: Cleveland Browns

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-3.5)

Minnesota is coming off a bye, while the Bears are recovering from an embarrassing loss in Green Bay.  Chicago’s defense is reeling – allowing yards in bunches – and could struggle against shifty rookies Teddy Bridgewater and Jerick McKinnon.  Nothing like it faced with Aaron Rodgers, but remember, Jordy Nelson was open by twenty yards not once, but twice!  Here’s the equation to look at: 1) The Vikings have 30 sacks on the year (3^rd in NFL) and have the fourth-best pass defense, allowing just 213.6 yards per game through the air.  That translates to Jay Cutler pressure, and therefore, Jay Cutler mistakes.  Sure, the Bears have tons of talent offensively, with Forte, Marshall and Jeffery, but how far has that gotten them?  Face it, Chicago is a mess, especially on defense.  If Bridgewater and McKinnon can piece together solid drives early, the Vikes will win this one outright.

Against the Spread: Minnesota Vikings

Straight Up: Minnesota Vikings

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins (-7.5)

The Redskins are coming off a bye, while the Bucs lost again, falling to 1-8 on the year.  RGIII played decent in his first game back, but rumors are still swirling regarding his support in the locker room.  Griffin makes too many mistakes, and the Redskins haven’t posted a blowout victory since a 41-10 win over the Jaguars on September 14th.  With just 3 INT’s on the year, Washington’s defense may have trouble stopping Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson.  I don’t see a big win by the ‘Skins, but a close one is a good bet.  Take the Bucs and the points.

Against the Spread: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Straight Up: Washington Redskins

San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants (+4.5)

Last week, these two teams faced what many would call must-win situations.  The Niners survived versus the Saints (in OT), while the Giants were trounced by the Seahawks.  San Francisco’s ninth-ranked rushing offense will attempt to do what Seattle did to the Giants last week – dominate.  After last week, the Giants are now dead last against the run, giving up 144.7 ypg.  Still, the Giants have the home field advantage, Odell Beckham Jr. is coming into his own and Rashad Jennings is set to return from injury.  Call it a gut pick, but I like the Giants to keep this game at or around a field goal.  Niners win, but take New York and the points. 

Against the Spread: New York Giants

Straight Up: San Francisco 49ers

Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5)

Marshawn Lynch has exploded in recent weeks, anchoring a Seattle offense that has seen inefficiency from Russell Wilson.  This game features two of the NFL’s top five rushing attacks, with the Seahawks first and the Chiefs ranked fifth.  Seattle and Kansas City have combined for 27 TD’s on the ground, and currently are the top two teams in rushing TD’s.  The teams are also 30^th and 31^st in passing yards per game, respectively.  You get the idea: rush attempt after rush attempt.  What about the run defenses?  Seattle is fourth in yards allowed (79.8 ypg), while the Chiefs are 20^th, but have yet to allow a single touchdown on the ground.  The Chiefs are such a strong team at home, but in this tossup, it’s hard to pick against Marshawn Lynch and the Seattle ground game, with the way it has been rolling.

Against the Spread: Seattle Seahawks

Straight Up: Seattle Seahawks

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-2.5)

This could be a high-scoring affair, considering neither defense has been able to stop anyone.  Many are leaning towards the Falcons, after seeing Cam Newton hobbling and the Panthers getting crushed by the Eagles (allowing nine sacks).  Ron Rivera says Cam is fine, but Newton is clearly not 100%.  Still, Cam will play, and should have more success against Atlanta.  It should also be noted that the Falcons have just 11 sacks on the season, the fewest in the NFL.  More time for Cam could lead to more success for the Carolina offense.  Playing at home, I like the Panthers to cover.

Against the Spread: Carolina Panthers

Straight Up: Carolina Panthers

Denver Broncos at St. Louis Rams (+9.5)

The Rams have seen a major boost in its pass rush in recent weeks, but this time, faces Peyton Manning and a Denver team that has allowed an NFL-low nine sacks on the year.  Manning is torching opposing defenses, and should have plenty of success against a St. Louis defense that while ranked a respectable 13^th in passing yards allowed, has allowed opposing quarterbacks to post a 102.6 QB rating against them.  Chock full of weapons, expect Manning and the Broncos to do the same.  With that kind of offense, it will be too big a challenge for Shaun Hill (replacing Austin Davis this week) to keep up.  Broncos cover.

Against the Spread: Denver Broncos

Straight Up: Denver Broncos

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-10.5)

The Chargers are coming off a bye, and have had way too much time to stew over an embarrassing loss to the Dolphins a few weeks back.  Next up, the winless Raiders, and an Oakland defense that has seen opposing quarterbacks post a 101.9 QB rating against it.  Enter Philip Rivers, playing at home, where the Chargers are 3-1, and have only lost to the 8-1 Cardinals.  The first match-up was a three-point game, but San Diego is a different team at home.  Chargers cover.

Against the Spread: San Diego Chargers

Straight Up: San Diego Chargers

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5)

Carson Palmer (torn ACL) is out for the year, leaving Drew Stanton at the top of Arizona’s depth chart.  His first challenge: the Detroit Lions, with the NFL’s top overall defense (283.4 ypg), third ranked pass defense and second ranked run defense.  Good luck, Drew.  On the other side, the Lions clawed its way to a last-minute win over the Dolphins last week, and have seen major benefits offensively, thanks to the return of Calvin Johnson.  The Cardinals may have the NFL’s best record, but facing this defense will be a challenge.  Plain and simple, I trust Detroit’s ‘D’ over Stanton.  Lions win outright. 

Against the Spread: Detroit Lions

Straight Up: Detroit Lions

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-5.5)

Shootout alert!  The weather forecast – partly cloudy, with a high of 30 degrees and a low of 11 – could, but likely won’t, hinder that.  Otherwise, Aaron Rodgers and Co. versus Chip Kelly and the high-flying Eagles should lead to offense, offense and more offense. Toss aside that butt fumble, because Mark Sanchez has been fairly efficient running Philadelphia’s offense, posting 33 Fantasy points in a game and a half.  Rodgers, Nelson and the Packers are on fire, but Green Bay’s defense can be scored upon.  That, and the Eagles’ two losses have each been close games.  It’s hard to pick against Green Bay at home, but I like the Eagles to keep this one close.  Take Philly and the points.

Against the Spread: Philadelphia Eagles

Straight Up: Green Bay Packers

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)

Shootout alert, Part II!  Both the Colts and Pats are coming off bye weeks and have had plenty of time to rest and prepare for this big game.  Both Andrew Luck and Tom Brady are putting up MVP numbers.  Indianapolis has been solid at home, going 3-1, with its only loss coming against the Eagles on September 15th.  Indy’s defense, however, has given up 75 points over its last two games combined – and the Patriots are clicking on all cylinders.  I picked against Brady a few weeks ago when the Pats faced Denver, and I’m not making that mistake again.  Patriots win a big one on the road.

Against the Spread: New England Patriots

Straight Up: New England Patriots

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans (+5.5)

Will the real Pittsburgh Steelers please stand up?  Last week, a blazing hot Ben Roethlisberger had a matchup against a Jets pass defense that had allowed 24 TD’s through the air (with just one INT).  The result: a garbage TD with two minutes to go and a seven-point loss.  Some blame Bieber (heck, I want to), but others should look at the Steelers and some of the team’s match-ups against cupcakes this season.  Pittsburgh has struggled against inferior competition.  Pittsburgh would be wise to first focus on Tennessee’s 29th-ranked rushing defense.  Even after last week’s loss to the Jets, I still like the Steelers to find a way to cover on the road.

Against the Spread: Pittsburgh Steelers

Straight Up: Pittsburgh Steelers

Bye Week: Dallas Cowboys, New York Jets, Jacksonville Jaguars and Baltimore Ravens

THE WIFE

She HATES sports, but will pick teams in hopes of leading to your embarrassment.  No blurb, just her NFL Week 11 Picks.  Heck, we’re lucky to get that much.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-5.5) – Dolphins

Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints (-7.5) – Saints

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-3.5) – Texans

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-3.5) – Bears

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins (-7.5) – Bucs

San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants (+4.5) – Giants

Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) – Chiefs

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-2.5) – Panthers

Denver Broncos at St. Louis Rams (+9.5) – Broncos

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-10.5) – Chargers

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) – Cardinals

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-5.5) – Packers

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) – Patriots

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans (+5.5) – Steelers

COIN FLIP – NFL Week 11 Picks

This quarter refuses to be referred to as “Chump change”… see what I did there?  Oh, and by the way, HEADS equals the HOME team, and TAILS is a vote for the AWAY team.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-5.5) – Dolphins

Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints (-7.5) – Bengals

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-3.5) – Browns

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-3.5) – Bears

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins (-7.5) – Redskins

San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants (+4.5) – Giants

Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) – Chiefs

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-2.5) – Panthers

Denver Broncos at St. Louis Rams (+9.5) – Broncos

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-10.5) – Chargers

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) – Lions

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-5.5) – Packers

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) – Colts

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans (+5.5) – Steelers

Special Guest: Scott Gabree

Right here is a good friend, a good guy and a big-time sports fan.  I met Scott through THE WIFE – and yes, that’s how a lot of male friendships develop once you have taken the plunge.  He is a Bengals fan… and he admits it to people, too.  But don’t let that fool you, he’ll toss out a lot of not-so-friendly Bengals-related opinions about Marvin Lewis and that absurd Andy Dalton contract.  He’ll also throw out opinions on this week’s games… and here are his NFL Week 11 Picks:

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-5.5)

PICK: BUF (+5.5) – Somehow this has the makings of a great game. Not sure anyone saw that coming at the start of the season. Injuries on the Dolphins O-line against a tough Bills defensive line put the Bills on top.

Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints (-7.5)

PICK: CIN (+7.5) – My 8 week old son had a better passer rating than Andy Dalton last week and at this point in his life all he can pass is gas. Nearly as many completions to Browns defensive backs and Ben-Gals than to his own receivers. Still, as any Bengals fan worth his/her salt knows, what this team does one week has little bearing on the next. The Saints have had similar ups and downs. Given the question marks, I’ll take the points.

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-3.5)

PICK: HOU (+3.5) – I think the Browns are going to be flying a bit high after an easy win against a Bengals disaster. If Arian Foster plays, the Texans have a chance. I’ll take the points.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-3.5)

PICK: CHI (-3.5) – This is an awful football game. Awful. The Bears are such a bizarre team. So much talent packed onto an offense that is equally skilled at making horrifying errors. Still, I’m going with the talent over a young Vikings team on the road.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins (-7.5)

PICK: TB (+7.5) – Another gem of a game. Washington just lost to the Vikings and hasn’t won by more than 3 points since week 1. It appears to be somewhat of a trend – I’ll take the points. Side note: Why are a football, baseball, and hockey team all based out of a body of water? It’s Tampa, Florida you weirdos.

San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants (+4.5)

PICK: SF (-4.5) – I think the 49ers are secretly mediocre and still riding a wave of year-old success. That said, I can already picture a dejected Eli standing on the field after his 3rd INT. Giants are in a rough slide and it’s hard to see that stopping against a decent team.

Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5)

PICK: KC (-1.5) – Arrowhead is a tough place to play, just like CenturyLink field (last year). Seattle just doesn’t quite seem to have the same stuff this season, especially on the road. Chiefs are hot – I’ll take em.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-2.5)

PICK: ATL (+2.5) – Goo. Another snooze. It’s embarrassing that these two teams are legit contenders for the NFC South title. Awful. I don’t care who wins. Falcons because they get a few points.

Denver Broncos at St. Louis Rams (+9.5)

PICK: DEN (-9.5) – Peyton in a dome against a mediocre pass defense. I don’t see STL coming within 10.

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-10.5)

PICK: SD (-10.5) – I can’t bring myself to take Oakland. I don’t care if they are getting 10+ points – they are just too awful. I’ll take an occasionally good Chargers team.

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5)

PICK: DET (+1.5) – Fantastic game. I don’t care what Bruce Arians says, downgrading to Drew Stanton is an issue. While I think the Cards can win with him, it’ll take a bit to work out the kinks. I gotta go with a tough Lions team if for no other reason than Calvin Johnson is my favorite player to watch.

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-5.5)

PICK: GB (-5.5) – Another great game. Aaron Rodgers is as hot as Hansel. Hard to imagine that Mark Sanchez is only 5.5 pts worse than Aaron Rodgers. McCoy isn’t the same as the past few years. Lacy is actually good. I can’t see the Packers making this a close game at home.

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)

PICK: NE (+2.5) – The Patriots just beat the Broncos by 22 points. Bill Belichick had two weeks to prepare for destroying the Colts. Yet the Colts are getting 2.5 points. Hard for me to see an NE team that is firing on all cylinders losing this game.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans (+5.5)

PICK: PIT (-5.5) – I don’t love the Steelers. I don’t think they’re awful, but not quite as great as everyone seems to think they are. Still, Pitt is just too much better than a garbage Titans team.

SPORTSCHUMP’S “Don’t Talk To Him About the Standings” NFL Week 11 Picks

BUFFALO +4.5 at MIAMI

I’d say over the past ten years or so, this game this late in the season has meant absolutely nothing.  This time around these two are actually fighting for a playoff berth.  Whoulda thunk?  Both these teams are coming off devastating losses last week in games they should have won, Miami at Detroit and Buffalo against Kansas City.  Buffalo handed Miami pretty easily in the second week of the season but at this point, they’re having problems moving the ball on the ground.  Defensively, Miami is pretty solid against both the pass and the run.  With Miami’s offense clicking, this has all the makings of a revenge game.  Only scoring 16 last week was an anomaly for the Dolphins.  I’m gonna go with the fish to cover in what should be a rowdy night in South Florida.

HOUSTON+3 at CLEVELAND

This is a weird line.  The Cleveland Browns are atop the most competitive division in football and they’re only laying three points to a Houston Texans team that’s still trying to figure things out?  What is Las Vegas trying to tell us here?  Are they trying to get us to lay the three or is this a trap?  Cleveland is at home, coming off a long week and riding a three-game winning streak.  Meanwhile, the Texans have lost four of their last five.  So why is this line only three?  Something’s rotten in the state of Denmark.  I don’t want to say this is a must win game for both teams but if Houston loses, their playoff chances will become slim and none and if Cleveland loses, they’ll lose their grip on first place in the AFC South.  So which way do I go, George?  All indications point to Cleveland winning this game which is why I’m going with the upset.  I’ll take Houston and the three.

MINNESOTA +3 at CHICAGO

Chicago being favored in any game for the rest of the season is laughable at this point.  It’s mid-November and this team STILL hasn’t won a home game.  You don’t think this team is bad enough to totally implode and not win another game all season, do you?  They’re certainly showing that potential.  The Bears are as dysfunctional as we’ve seen any team in recent years but they can’t possibly, POSSIBLY lose another home game to a non-descript Minnesota team.  I will begrudgingly take the Bears here and if they lose, I can’t see how Marc Trestman keeps his job for another minute.

PHILADELPHIA +5 at GREEN BAY

Mark Sanchez had such an amazing week last Monday night, his first start in two years, he had people scrambling through their garbage cans and wishing they hadn’t thrown out his rookie card.  Don’t fret.  Now that you’ve gone through the trouble of finding it, you can dump it back in the trash.  Green Bay needs this win far more than Philly does.  Both these teams look like playoff teams but a loss here could make things a little tenuous.  Philly has impressed me all season long but beating up on the Panthers isn’t all that difficult.  I’m gonna take the Pack here just because I’m not totally sold on the Return on the Sanchize.

SEATTLE +2.5 at KANSAS CITY

Great game here.  Seattle finally found itself last week at the expense of the lowly New York Giants.  They’re riding a three-game winning streak.  The Chiefs on the other hand are riding a four-game winning streak.  In my opinion, this is the must watch game of the week.  We have one of the league’s best rushing attacks against one of the league’s most celebrated defenses.   Not so fast, my friend.  Before you think I’m talking about KC and Seattle, it’s the other way around.  The Seahawks feature the league’s number one rushing offense and the Chiefs are number one against the pass.  See what I did there?  I’m not giving up on these Seahawks just yet.  I know Arrowhead is a tough place to play but for some reason, I see Seattle making a late season push here.  I’ll take the ‘Hawks on the road.

ATLANTA +1.5 at CAROLINA

I’d like to call this the battle for mediocrity.  The NFC South is so bad (How bad is it?) that the Buccaneers are 1-8 and still not eliminated from divisional contention.  The Panthers looked so bad last Monday night, people stopped watching before the national anthem had been completed.  Seriously, did you see those sack numbers against Cam Newton?  It’s amazing the guy can still walk.  I’d say Carolina’s offensive line is banged up but I don’t think they were that good to begin with.  It’s almost a waste of time to pick this game.  If I choose that it ends in a 0-0 tie, do I get extra points?  If you watch this game, you really should probably find better things to do with your life.  I’ll take the Falcons and the point-and-a-half simply because after what I saw on Monday night, I may never pick Carolina ever again.

CINCINNATI +7 at NEW ORLEANS

Is this the beginning of the end for the Bengals?  They’ve had ten long days to think about how they got punked at home on a Thursday night to Cleveland and now they go on the road for three straight games, including this week in New Orleans.  Amazingly, at 4-5, at the Saints are still leading that division.  That’s because they play against the worst collection of talent an NFL division has seen in years.  The Saints aren’t as bad as they let on.  They just can’t catch a break.  They will this week against the Bengals as they cover the seven.

TAMPA BAY +7 at (THAT TEAM FROM) WASHINGTON

I can’t believe I’m going to say this but I’m taking the Buccaneers.  And no, this is not a homer pick.  The Redskins are just that bad.  We’re all waiting for someone to light a fire in the Buccaneers locker room.  Gerald McCoy has called out his team.  That hasn’t done any good.  That being said, I don’t think (that team from) Washington is good enough to beat anyone by seven.  Gimme the Bucs.

DENVER -9.5 at ST. LOUIS

The Rams continue to get no respect.  I know Peyton and company can put 50 points up against just about anybody but this is the Rams first home game in a month.  They’ve beaten both the Niners and the Seahawks and gave both Philly and Dallas a run for their money.  I like Denver to win this thing but ten might be a lot to lay against a team that still thinks they have something to prove.  Besides, Denver’s offensive line is banged up enough that Richie Incognito’s agent just got a phone call from John Elway.  I think St Louis’ defense can keep things close enough to at least make this game interesting.

SAN FRANCISCO -4 at NY GIANTS

How bad can the Giants get?  They haven’t allowed any less than 20 points in a game in six weeks.  That’s not exactly shutdown defense.  They are literally the worst team in the league when it comes to stopping the run.  Not only do the Niners have Frank Gore, they have a quarterback who’s pretty good at running the football as well.  These teams are going in opposite directions.  San Fran is coming off an emotional overtime win in New Orleans last week while, well, for the Giants, I’m not sure things can get much worse.  They’ve lost four straight and look like they’ve given up.  While they may turn things around this week, I just don’t know that they have the talent to do so.  I’m taking San Fran to cover on the road.

OAKLAND +10 at SAN DIEGO

You want to know how bad are the Oakland Raiders are?  They’re getting ten points to a team that lost their last game 37-0?  The only thing this Raiders team is committed to is losing.  Have you seen the rest of their schedule?  It is perfectly conceivable that this team goes 0-16.  With the first pick of the 2015 NFL Draft, the Oakland Raiders select…  Good thing Todd Marinovich is off the board.  The Chargers are reeling and have had an extra week to think about the beat down they got in South Florida.  They’ll take out their frustrations on the Raiders this week just as the Broncos did last week.  It might be about time we change Oakland’s franchise name to the Oakland Whipping Posts.

DETROIT +2 at ARIZONA

I’ll be honest.  I’m kind of surprised at this line.  I know the Cards are 8-1 but they just lost Carson Palmer for the season.  I know the Lions are the worst 7-2 team in the history of the league but they’re still 7-2.  Drew Stanton has filled in admirably for Palmer earlier this season but he hasn’t faced a defense like Detroit’s who ranks second against the rush and third against the pass.  I’m going out on a limb here and picking the Lions on the road.  As much as I like the Cardinals this season, I’m not entirely sure this team is psychologically prepared to deal with the loss of their starting quarterback.

NEW ENGLAND +3 at INDIANAPOLIS

We’ve already seen Tom Brady take down Peyton Manning.  Now are we going to see him take down his successor?  The Colts are coming off a bye which can only mean that Andrew Luck has spent two solid weeks studying New England’s defense.  An Indianapolis victory here won’t necessarily symbolize a changing of the guard but the reigns are being prepped.  Give me the Colts and lay the three.

PITTSBURGH -6 at TENNESSEE

Why do we keep putting Pittsburgh on prime time?  Are we waiting to see which Steelers team will actually show up?  In a single season, we’ve gone from seeing them lose to the Buccaneers to watching Ben Roethlisberger throwing a million touchdowns in two games to them losing to the New York Jets.  It’s enough to make even the most mild-mannered Steelers fan toss his Terrible Towel in disgust.      I don’t know why I keep taking Tennessee.  They’re pretty bad.  But I’m going to again this Monday only because one never knows what Steelers team will show up.